Dave -
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:
What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to
indicate that the pandemic has ended?
From Wikipedia:
A *pandemic* (from Greek
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> πᾶν, /pan/, "all"
and δῆμος, /demos/, "people") is an epidemic
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a
large region, for instance multiple continents
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with
a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread
endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as
recurrences of seasonal influenza
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are generally
excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe
rather than being spread worldwide.
The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
/In the //*post-pandemic*// period, influenza disease activity will
have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is
expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza
A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and
update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An
intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required./
Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
- Steve
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