Steve, Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature. Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience. davew On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Dave - >> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. > Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to > the singular prediction above: > > What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate > that the pandemic has ended? > From Wikipedia: >> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> πᾶν, >> *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large >> region, for instance multiple continents >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a >> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a stable >> number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases >> with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal >> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are generally >> excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather >> than being spread worldwide. > The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic: > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/ >> >> *In the ***post-pandemic*** period, influenza disease activity will have >> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that >> the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this >> stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic >> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery >> and evaluation may be required.* > > Or maybe some other (measurable) definition? > - Steve > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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