Cody,
Llama plasm. I am not betting on Llama plasm by September. I think of this as our war. Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm. We would be hunkering down for a long campaign. The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it would do the job. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of cody dooderson Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not need the 'white van' approach in September? Cody Smith On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: So what is “benignitivity”? Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins. I hope I got that right. Nick Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance? Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest. davew On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> wrote: It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory <https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16> , the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv. n Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics Dave writes: < 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. > It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself. Marcus -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... 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