CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011

CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018

CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044

CFR for MA as a whole is  13,583/465,726 = .030

 

 

So the question remains, why am I four times less likely to die if I get sick 
here in Santa Fe, than if I go back to Hampshire County?  Putting aside the 
fallacy of induction.   The whole thing is a little crazy because Hampshire 
county includes none of the big Massachusetts hot spots.  I suppose it’s 
imponderable, but I just though I would see what the list thinks about it.  

 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Alexander Rasmus
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 12:20 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker

 

Nick,

 

You're making this harder than it has to be. The nyt gives you total cases and 
total deaths directly. You can divide total deaths by total cases to get the 
case fatality rate.

 

CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011

CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018

CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044

CFR for MA as a whole is  13,583/465,726 = .030

 

Best,

Alex

 

On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 10:31 AM <[email protected] 
<mailto:[email protected]> > wrote:

Dear Mathematically Competent Colleagues,

 

See below. 

 

Do you agree that the population case rate divided by the population divided by 
the population death rate is equal to case fatality rate? If so, the case 
fatality rate in Santa Fe County is very low, a little over one percent whereas 
the case fatality rate in Hampshire County, Massachusetts, (where I have not 
been for a year but has a comparable population) is  little over 4 percent.  I 
tried to add King County Wa, where Glen is, because it was an early participant 
in the pandemic as was Massachusetts, but the tracker wont let me add new 
entries, today.  The case fatality rate in MA is a tad under 5%, if my 
calculations are correct.  In other words, if you catch covid in MA, with the 
world’s fanciest hospitals, you 4+ times more likely to die than if you catch 
it in New Mexico.  Now, I was tempted to attribute this to the hospitals: i.e, 
terminal cases were coming into MA hospitals from other states, but Hampshire 
County doesn’t HAVE any fancy hospitals.  

 

Hopefully this all because I am dividing reciprocals wrong.  Does [1/a]/[1/b] = 
b/a?

 

n

Nicholas Thompson

 <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: The New York Times <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> 
> 
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 7:38 AM
To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> 
Subject: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker

 

  
<https://nl.nytimes.com/q/vzG-j1eg17dcz3P61_nPkA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHPVcDbnl0Qgpf_cc9BGDPKSXBUhRudGhvbXBzb25AY2xhcmt1LmVkdVgEAAAAAA~~>
 

The latest numbers from New Mexico, Santa Fe County, N.M., Massachusetts, …




 
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 View in browser| 
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/tfjriY9JCsjGOlJl5kAf8g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0S3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 nytimes.com


 
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 

January 17, 2021

        

The latest U.S. coronavirus data from the places that matter most to you.

 

        


New Mexico


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in New Mexico fell 
to 1,134 yesterday, a 5 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of 
last year, at least 1 in 13 people who live in New Mexico have been infected, 
and at least 1 in 720 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

1,088

1,134

54

–3%

162,893


Deaths

36

25

1.21

–18%

2,912


Hospitalized

632

685

33

–11%

        

MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
 NEW MEXICO

        

 


Did someone forward you this email?  
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 Build your own daily Covid tracker.

        


United States


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in the United 
States fell to 224,499 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. 
Since January of last year, at least 1 in 14 people who live in the United 
States have been infected, and at least 1 in 838 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

201,732

224,499

68

+9%

23,813,966


Deaths

3,353

3,319

1.00

+27%

395,882


Hospitalized

126,139

129,008

39

+5%

        

MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OEGEH4uZx6jrklI8oSb5Bg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy11cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 UNITED STATES

        

 

        


Santa Fe County, N.M.


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Santa Fe County 
fell to 64 yesterday, a 9 percent decrease from the day before. Since January 
of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Santa Fe County have been 
infected, and at least 1 in 1,600 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

67

64

42

+5%

8,629


Deaths

3

1

0.76

–20%

94


MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
 NEW MEXICO

        

 

        


Massachusetts


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Massachusetts 
fell to 5,513 yesterday, a 4 percent decrease from the day before. Since 
January of last year, at least 1 in 15 people who live in Massachusetts have 
been infected, and at least 1 in 507 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

5,799

5,513

80

+12%

465,726


Deaths

74

73

1.05

+3%

13,583


Hospitalized

2,197

2,211

32

–2%

        

MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
 MASSACHUSETTS

        

 

        


Hampshire County, Mass.


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Hampshire County 
fell to 66 yesterday, a 6 percent decrease from the day before. Since January 
of last year, at least 1 in 32 people who live in Hampshire County have been 
infected, and at least 1 in 734 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

65

66

41

+11%

4,952


Deaths

5

2

0.98

–35%

219


MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
 MASSACHUSETTS

        

 

        


Harris County, Texas


Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Harris County 
fell to 3,093 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since 
January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Harris County have 
been infected, and at least 1 in 1,248 have died.


        
ON JAN. 16

DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS

PER 100,000

14-DAY CHANGE

TOTAL REPORTED


Cases

3,110

3,093

66

+23%

281,422


Deaths

54

28

0.59

+104%

3,777


MAPS & CHARTS:   
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/ppxvG31hgzXhNSrhz6LGXw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy90ZXhhcy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 TEXAS

        

 

        
        

Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies 
and hospitals. Population and demographic data from Census Bureau. 
Hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project.

 


14-day change trends are calculated with 7-day averages. Numbers may be revised 
to reflect improvements in data reporting. View  
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
 your tracker online for the most up to date figures. For more about how this 
data was collected and compiled see our  
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/f6LnCXQlZcYGD9DI88bOXA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9hYm91dC1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1kYXRhLW1hcHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xODUmZW1jPWVkaXRfeWN0XzIwMjEwMTE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI2MTA5Jm5sPWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXRyYWNrZXImcmVnaV9pZD01NzAzNjA4NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ5NTM3JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD0xZGM2ZjE1YTMwYmUyZDQ3MTJmYWU1ZjBlNWE5YTY3OVcDbnl0Qgpf_cc9BGDPKSXBUhRudGhvbXBzb25AY2xhcmt1LmVkdVgEAAAAAA~~>
 F.A.Q. page.

        
        

 


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