There could be confounds that are systematic from location to location: 1. The number you see as “cases” is of course “positive tests” by one or another measure. Is it possible that Hampshire county is capturing fewer of their actual cases in tests? The absolute numbers are about 4x as large; do larger numbers impact the thoroughness of testing coverage? Does the presence of a megacity in Ma affect the state’s ability to cover lower-population regions? 2. Demographic structure: what is the age profile of both places? Since CFR varies strongly by age cohort, if some place is depopulated by the young or attractive to retirees, some skew could result. I would expect particularly large skews in some rural areas where many young people have left; don’t know why Hampshire would suffer that more than NM as a whole, but to compare a county to SF city could be suspect. 3. Are there any differences in cause-of-death reporting across regions, which could interact with the profile of things people die of in each region to produce a bias in total counts by category? 4 Does climate matter to severity of infection? If we looked at all areas grouped by relative humidity and tried to control statistically for everything else, would we find that being in a mosquito infested bog causes deeper-lung infections than being out west in the moon-dry silica grit, pollen, and forest-fire smoke? 5. Did Luhan-Grisham do a better job with shutdowns and public-health interventions than Barker? Did she obtain better compliance with guidelines, of the state as a whole or relative to particular counties? I think we know that masking not only reduces frequency of infections, but also reduces frequency of severe infections among those that do happen, by delivering lower viral loads. So distancing and masking practices could affect both total numbers and CFR.
Probably one could add hypotheses. When the epidemiologists have time to pursue such luxury science, it will be interesting to learn how many significant dummy variables they find. Eric > On Jan 17, 2021, at 1:54 PM, <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> wrote: > > CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011 > CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018 > CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044 > CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030 > > > So the question remains, why am I four times less likely to die if I get sick > here in Santa Fe, than if I go back to Hampshire County? Putting aside the > fallacy of induction. The whole thing is a little crazy because Hampshire > county includes none of the big Massachusetts hot spots. I suppose it’s > imponderable, but I just though I would see what the list thinks about it. > > N > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2qqNHDoqmyarZ2prg9ooAPRQpy0DGUrSaD-A416theUlxuB7xq03IGfgTI_KObP4ezHuSYYrKaQV3Ttn6fchitLlZGiB9Kw9pxhbKMWqH0_yhA,,&typo=1> > > > From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Alexander Rasmus > Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 12:20 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker > > Nick, > > You're making this harder than it has to be. The nyt gives you total cases > and total deaths directly. You can divide total deaths by total cases to get > the case fatality rate. > > CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011 > CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018 > CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044 > CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030 > > Best, > Alex > > On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 10:31 AM <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> Dear Mathematically Competent Colleagues, >> >> See below. >> >> Do you agree that the population case rate divided by the population divided >> by the population death rate is equal to case fatality rate? If so, the case >> fatality rate in Santa Fe County is very low, a little over one percent >> whereas the case fatality rate in Hampshire County, Massachusetts, (where I >> have not been for a year but has a comparable population) is little over 4 >> percent. I tried to add King County Wa, where Glen is, because it was an >> early participant in the pandemic as was Massachusetts, but the tracker wont >> let me add new entries, today. The case fatality rate in MA is a tad under >> 5%, if my calculations are correct. In other words, if you catch covid in >> MA, with the world’s fanciest hospitals, you 4+ times more likely to die >> than if you catch it in New Mexico. Now, I was tempted to attribute this to >> the hospitals: i.e, terminal cases were coming into MA hospitals from other >> states, but Hampshire County doesn’t HAVE any fancy hospitals. >> >> Hopefully this all because I am dividing reciprocals wrong. Does >> [1/a]/[1/b] = b/a? >> >> n >> Nicholas Thompson >> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2GittFBZAZZ2GGrkHPy1-eSNSGS-v6yNKc5cwpjUXNHEgwoCzPGkiKmtcQA6ZsBmSVGRrejCzcAJp5AI5QjW8vgw7gRosYjDelBqF3oL33OzAD4JBZv1UA,,&typo=1> >> >> >> From: The New York Times <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> >> Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 7:38 AM >> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> Subject: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker >> >> >> The latest numbers from New Mexico, Santa Fe County, N.M., Massachusetts, … >> View in browser >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>|nytimes.com >> >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/tfjriY9JCsjGOlJl5kAf8g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0S3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> >> >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> >> January 17, 2021 >> The latest U.S. coronavirus data from the places that matter most to you. >> >> >> New Mexico >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in New Mexico >> fell to 1,134 yesterday, a 5 percent decrease from the day before. Since >> January of last year, at least 1 in 13 people who live in New Mexico have >> been infected, and at least 1 in 720 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 1,088 >> 1,134 >> 54 >> –3% >> 162,893 >> Deaths >> 36 >> 25 >> 1.21 >> –18% >> 2,912 >> Hospitalized >> 632 >> 685 >> 33 >> –11% >> MAPS & CHARTS: NEW MEXICO >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> >> >> Did someone forward you this email? Build your own daily Covid tracker >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>. >> >> United States >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in the United >> States fell to 224,499 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. >> Since January of last year, at least 1 in 14 people who live in the United >> States have been infected, and at least 1 in 838 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 201,732 >> 224,499 >> 68 >> +9% >> 23,813,966 >> Deaths >> 3,353 >> 3,319 >> 1.00 >> +27% >> 395,882 >> Hospitalized >> 126,139 >> 129,008 >> 39 >> +5% >> MAPS & CHARTS: UNITED STATES >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OEGEH4uZx6jrklI8oSb5Bg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy11cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> >> >> Santa Fe County, N.M. >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Santa Fe >> County fell to 64 yesterday, a 9 percent decrease from the day before. Since >> January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Santa Fe County >> have been infected, and at least 1 in 1,600 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 67 >> 64 >> 42 >> +5% >> 8,629 >> Deaths >> 3 >> 1 >> 0.76 >> –20% >> 94 >> MAPS & CHARTS: NEW MEXICO >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> >> >> Massachusetts >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Massachusetts >> fell to 5,513 yesterday, a 4 percent decrease from the day before. Since >> January of last year, at least 1 in 15 people who live in Massachusetts have >> been infected, and at least 1 in 507 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 5,799 >> 5,513 >> 80 >> +12% >> 465,726 >> Deaths >> 74 >> 73 >> 1.05 >> +3% >> 13,583 >> Hospitalized >> 2,197 >> 2,211 >> 32 >> –2% >> MAPS & CHARTS: MASSACHUSETTS >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> >> >> Hampshire County, Mass. >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Hampshire >> County fell to 66 yesterday, a 6 percent decrease from the day before. Since >> January of last year, at least 1 in 32 people who live in Hampshire County >> have been infected, and at least 1 in 734 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 65 >> 66 >> 41 >> +11% >> 4,952 >> Deaths >> 5 >> 2 >> 0.98 >> –35% >> 219 >> MAPS & CHARTS: MASSACHUSETTS >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> >> >> Harris County, Texas >> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Harris County >> fell to 3,093 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since >> January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Harris County have >> been infected, and at least 1 in 1,248 have died. >> >> ON JAN. 16 >> DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS >> PER 100,000 >> 14-DAY CHANGE >> TOTAL REPORTED >> Cases >> 3,110 >> 3,093 >> 66 >> +23% >> 281,422 >> Deaths >> 54 >> 28 >> 0.59 >> +104% >> 3,777 >> MAPS & CHARTS: TEXAS >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/ppxvG31hgzXhNSrhz6LGXw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy90ZXhhcy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> >> >> Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health >> agencies and hospitals. Population and demographic data from Census Bureau. >> Hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project. >> >> >> 14-day change trends are calculated with 7-day averages. Numbers may be >> revised to reflect improvements in data reporting. View your tracker online >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> >> for the most up to date figures. For more about how this data was collected >> and compiled see our F.A.Q. page >> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/f6LnCXQlZcYGD9DI88bOXA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9hYm91dC1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1kYXRhLW1hcHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xODUmZW1jPWVkaXRfeWN0XzIwMjEwMTE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI2MTA5Jm5sPWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXRyYWNrZXImcmVnaV9pZD01NzAzNjA4NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ5NTM3JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD0xZGM2ZjE1YTMwYmUyZDQ3MTJmYWU1ZjBlNWE5YTY3OVcDbnl0Qgpf_cc9BGDPKSXBUhRudGhvbXBzb25AY2xhcmt1LmVkdVgEAAAAAA~~>. >> >> >> This newsletter includes the first six places you select. 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