Dispositional belief (by which I mean acting as if you believe) in some thing
requires there be a somewhat coherent thing in which to believe, whether or not
that thing actually exists (e.g. a mathematical limit). That's necessary for
*progression*. Admittedly, there can be a ball of uncertainty around the thing
and around any wandering path to the thing. But there does have to be a thing
in order for it to be fideistic. Apotheotic conceptions (e.g. The long-termism)
follow it to a T.
Of course, there are "behaviorists" out there who impute a thing onto agnostic
or wave-riding opportunists. (People impute such upon me all the time.) And then, given
enough data about the actor's behaviors, if their actions really *do* converge over a
long enough time and toward a small enough ball around some thing, then whether or not
they're merely opportunists or True Believers is a distinction without a difference. As
long as we can effectively *treat* them as if they believe in the thing, then it's
irrelevant whether or not they actually believe in the thing.
So your question of "can't one just ...?" Sure. Of course. But the coherence of
one's actions is a practical indicator for fideism. And Musk exhibits it. The Uihleins'
exhibit it. I think Thiel does, too. Estimating what any of them might do, or why they
might do what they do, then, depends on how coherent you can make the thing and their
trajectory towards that thing. (It's also a good way to manipulate people by estimating
what they *might* believe in, then dangling something that looks like it in front of
them. E.g. Facebook's Metaverse, decentralized finance with the cryptobros, or the
tendency to ignore the bullsh¡t of ChatGPT.)
In order for actor A to avoid imputing belief in a thing onto actor B, actor
B's exhibited repertoire has to be incompressible enough to resist reduction to
1 or a few things. And the controller/modeler has to have at least as much
variation as the system being controlled/modeled. So actor A has to have enough
of a (perhaps latent) repertoire to recognize the limits to B's repertoire.
It's a fine line between genius and insanity. But whether that line is a
limitation of the observer or the lack of a limitation of the observed is
particular to the case.
On 10/31/22 10:06, Marcus Daniels wrote:
Why are those communities fideist? Can’t one just ride waves of uncertainty as
a curious person or as an opportunist watching for opportunity?
On Oct 31, 2022, at 9:04 AM, glen <[email protected]> wrote:
OK. But even if that's true, there's an overpowering thread of fideism in many
of these communities. E.g. longevity (parabiosis), long-termism, transhumanism,
sea-steading, cryptocurrencies (not including wider blockchain), climate
optimism, etc. Christianity intersects much of this because it's a little bit
apotheotic, which is one reason many offshoots like Mormonism can infer more
weirdo beliefs from the basis set. Another example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Mission_Society_Church_of_God
That thread is, I think, easily distinguished from the Fire & Brimstone, End
Times type. That progressive fideism combined with their technical foci couple
Thiel and Musk fairly tightly. I suspect the Uihleins might be the opposite, more
regressive. It's relatively easy to believe that Musk is acting in Good Faith, and
similarly easy to believe the Uihleins are acting in Bad Faith. Thiel's more
occult. It's inadequate to write him off as simply weirdo. That insults us proud
weirdos.
On 10/31/22 07:07, Marcus Daniels wrote:
Thiel is a Christian weirdo.
Sent from my iPhone
On Oct 31, 2022, at 6:50 AM, glen <[email protected]> wrote:
Do you get this:
https://theweek.com/speedreads/972170/peter-thiels-largest-disclosed-political-donation-ever-possible-jd-vance-senate-run
Doctorow has an interesting take:
https://pluralistic.net/2022/10/26/boxed-in/
"The Uihleins are ideologues, but it's a mistake to view their authoritarianism,
antisemitism, racism, and homophobia as the main force of their ideology. First and
foremost is their belief that they deserve to be rich, and that the rich should be in
charge of everyone else."
I'm not convinced. But it's plausible. What do Musk, Thiel, and the Uihleins
have in common? They *probably* think they're better at something than the rest
of us. What is that something they think they're better at? If you answer that,
then maybe it'll explain why Musk bought Twitter?
On 10/31/22 06:42, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I don’t get it. It seems undisciplined to put his successful companies at risk
to buy this money loser, while at the same time getting all this bad press.
On Oct 31, 2022, at 5:11 AM, glen <[email protected]> wrote:
Yeah, I deleted all my Tweets, unfollowed everyone, and removed all my followers.
Musk is an asshole. I know my lack of participation means nothing. But at least I
won't be (as) complicit. There are no good billionaires
<https://patrioticmillionaires.org/2022/09/21/dont-trust-the-good-billionaires/>.
It's interesting how, in some cases, the existence of the most horrible of any species (e.g. Uihlein
<https://www.propublica.org/article/uline-uihlein-election-denial>) can make the others seem "good". It's
like a murderer saying "At least I'm not a rapist." Or a rapist saying "At least I'm not a pedophile."
And a pedophile saying "At least I don't kill 'em." Honor among thieves.
As SteveS mentioned earlier, I'm almost diametrically opposed to effective
altruism for exactly this reason. The argument is basically: Hustle! Then Dole.
I'm willing to change my mind.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YgbpxJmEdFhFGpqci/winners-of-the-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming-contest
Even when we give Billionaires [ptouie] the benefit of the doubt, forgive them
for their rapacious and exploitative methods, and
say "At least they're doing Good Things, now", the Hustle! Then Dole lifestyle hones/perfects
dystopian Taylorism <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Winslow_Taylor>. It's only when these
old codgers begin to see Death a little more clearly, do they discover some sort of moral frame, while
(metaphorically) meditating at the edge of their infinity pool built on the ridgeline of some desert
mountain range. And, as we see in Musk, their lifetime of isolation within the outsized scope of their
own influence (because, well, money is God, omnipresent, omniscient, etc.), puts them at risk of
dimension reducing attractors like most individualist, right-wing causes. E.g. "free speech"
(distinct from free speech, with no quotes).
On 10/30/22 11:37, Jochen Fromm wrote:
Until now I have used 3 Twitter accounts for scientific, development and personal stuff.
I have used them more frequently since Google+ was shut down. One main reason why I do
not use Facebook or Instagram is Mark Zuckerberg. As Grady Booch used to say
"Facebook is a profoundly unethical company, and it starts at the top, with Mark
Zuckerberg".
For Twitter it is similar now. I really don't want to support a platform that
belongs to someone who likes to insult others, like Garry Kasparov or the real
Tesla founder Martin Eberhard or many others, just the way Trump likes to do it.
The note for advertisers was plain marketing. His intention to save the world?
A lie. This town square stuff? Nonsense. He certainly didn't write this, it was
more likely written by Twitter's CCO Sarah Personette and her team. However, he
has created his own hell by buying the platform he is addicted to.
https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/28/23428132/elon-musk-twitter-acquisition-problems-speech-moderation
I am using Mastodon instead now, which does not belong to an egomanic or
eccentric billionaire. Yes, it is named after an animal which died out at the
end of the Pleistoscene, but the distributed and decentralized approach is much
better than having one big centralized system. My new Mastodon accounts are
here:
fediscience.org/@cas_group
berlin.social/@JochenFromm
ruby.social/@jofr
-J.
-------- Original message --------
From: Steve Smith <[email protected]>
Date: 10/30/22 6:50 PM (GMT+01:00)
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>
Subject: [FRIAM] (not) leaving Twitter
https://mashable.com/article/please-stop-tweeting-leaving-twitter
https://mashable.com/article/i-was-going-to-quit-twitter-but-elon-musk-takeover
I have a *very* limited twitter engagement myself. Same with FB and *zero* with anything
else *but* Instagram where I restrict myself to viewing and posting and liking the
equivalent of "family" snapshots for my family and closer friends.
I tried *mostly* to ignore the implications of a Musk privatization-takeover of Twitter
during all the on-again off-again period but/and now as it has become a "done
deal" I feel more able to engage in thinking about that (unable to avoid thinking
about that?). I thought I might de-activate/delete my nearly unused account when I
discovered that I had a renewed interest (morbid fascination) in watching it spin out
(decohere) or not from the front row. I found myself looking for whether Musk's magic
pixie dust would somehow trigger a phase transition (likely there will be one, but
probably not the kind most of us hope for).
Earlier discussions on *this* forum touched on what would make for a proper
*metaverse* (not the one Zuckerberg is trying to create from whole-cloth). My
(very loose) engagement with the Cardano/Catalyst work and interest in
blockchain is motivated by this as well.
Musk's attempts to characterize Twitter as a "town square" feels very off-base
in many ways:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-twitter-is-unlikely-to-become-the-digital-town-square-elon-musk-envisions/
What do "town squares" look like in "company towns"? And why does most
social media so often feel more like a rolling street-brawl?
I worked *peripherally* on a project at LANL trying to address the
possibilities/implications roughly 30 years ago:
http://library.sciencemadness.org/lanl1_a/lib-www/pubs/00285557.pdf
there were some good insights, but it was all so young and fresh and raw at the
same time...
--
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