California is 5th largest economy but including the "rest" of Pacifica
(OR, WA, BC) it ranks 4th just behind Germany. What would an informal
but powerful union of North Pacific rim "states" (Panama to BC), the
bulk of Canada, and the northeast Atlantic Seaboard and (eventually?)
the upper midwest (MN, WI, MI ...) look like economically, controlling
Pacific trade, etc. ? JP/Korea, the UK, the EU would all be obvious good
trade/defense allies, no matter what "Gilead" chose to do?
As for Musk, I predict Space Force will be spun up with an unprecedented
accelerated "Colonize Mars" agenda. Maybe Bezos will be allowed to
play an O'Neill Colony fantasy out to complement this... do we leave the
Moon to Saudi Arabia, japan and China?
Remember how fast we went from Vanguard to Moon Landing in the 60s?
The mission is much bigger but the resources and sophistication of the
supporting systems are also (multiplicatively, geometrically,
exponentially,??? ) greater?
And Zuckerberg will provide the Fentanyl of the Masses with VR rigs and
virtual worlds to live out the full spectrum of fantasies?
On 11/9/24 10:15 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I’ve already identified some things that could come from a Trump
administration.
1. It will stimulate New York, New England and the west coast and
other states to create further civil rights protections from the
federal government. Health maintenance arrangements may be
further secured by the states. When Social Security and Medicare
fail, these states will be better prepared. The result of all
this is that smart people in backward states will leave those
states and take residence in states where they are valued. Money
will be kept in progressive states and not wasted on an ignorant,
self-destructive collective.
2. It will motivate these states to reach out to other countries to
negotiate special relationships on trade and climate.
California, being the 5^th largest economy in the world, can
bypass the federal government in making deals. This will limit
the power of the federal government.
3. Elon Musk’s interests may keep progress going on electrification.
Yes, the U.S. may indeed use Ukraine to secure access to the
country’s natural resources.
4. Elon Musk’s interests in space colonization may force the
Republican party to adopt some more forward-looking projects that
will employ angry young men and mitigate their despair.
The problem with stretching out the war in Ukraine is that they will
run out of manpower. Otherwise, it is arguably a good thing for the
U.S. to keep Russian losses high and to undermine their economy.
That’s how to break an authoritarian regime. Unfortunately, now we
will have to first have to break our own.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Pieter
Steenekamp <[email protected]>
*Date: *Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 8:07 AM
*To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die
I think many of you dislike Trump so much that it’s hard to see he
might actually do some good for the US and the world. Let me share my
thinking.
I see Trump a bit like King Leopold II of Belgium. King Leopold did
horrible things in the Congo, but he did a lot of good for his own
country. Back then, people in Belgium didn’t know the terrible stuff
happening in Africa because news travelled differently.
Now, don’t get me wrong—Trump’s a flawed person, and I think we can
agree on that. But, in his first term, he actually achieved some good
things for the US and globally. For example, his administration was
successful in the Middle East. If you’re interested in a deeper look,
Lex Fridman’s interview with Jared Kushner offers some insights
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo). It's fair to say that
Biden’s administration didn’t build on Trump’s progress there - in
fact they messed up seriously.
If we keep an open mind, it’s possible to see that Biden’s approach in
Ukraine will stretch out the war and cost US taxpayers more over many
years and the citizens of Ukraine will be the big losers. Given
Trump’s previous success in the Middle East, it’s not crazy to think
he could find a faster way to help end the war in Ukraine without a
mess, like what happened with Biden’s exit from Afghanistan.
Sure, Trump’s not a saint. But he’s not looking to go down as a
failure either—he wants to be remembered as a winner.
On Sat, 9 Nov 2024 at 16:43, Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> wrote:
Trump’s reads the room. If he feels his people would tolerate
Russia using chemical weapons at a massive scale in Ukraine, then
he’d be fine with that. Remember he was fine separating
immigrant children from their parents. This property may well
cause some deals to be made because they are afraid of the
consequences. That’s not a skill in negotiation, that’s just the
kind of terror that an organized crime boss might elicit.
The U.S. doesn’t have a boundless number of Tomahawk missiles to
give Ukraine, even if we authorized firing into Russia. They run
a couple million U.S. dollars each. We aren’t even keeping up
with Russia’s artillery manufacturing. Putin knows all this. For
better or worse, Biden doesn’t want a war.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Pieter
Steenekamp <[email protected]>
*Date: *Friday, November 8, 2024 at 11:49 PM
*To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die
Trump's the kind of guy you should take seriously, not literally.
When he says something big like, “I’ll end the war in Ukraine on
day one,” he means he's dead set on making peace happen there.
Anyone with half a brain knows he can’t actually snap his fingers
and stop the war on his first day. That’s up to Russia and Ukraine
to figure out, after all. But does Trump have a unique knack for
pushing people toward a deal? Oh, you bet he does.
In fact, William Spaniel, a professor over at the University of
Pittsburgh, mentioned in a podcast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8 that Putin seems to
believe Trump will lay down a deal that both sides can live with.
(And yeah, Spaniel seems to know his stuff.)
So, here’s my hunch on what Trump might say to Ukraine and Russia,
in my own words: “Alright, fellas, here’s the deal. Ukraine, let’s
be real—Russia needs to keep a little slice of land to save face.
It might sting, but if you don’t settle, Russia’s going to drag
this war out and make it miserable for everyone. And Russia, let’s
stop the drama now. You can keep a few bits, but if you keep
pushing, we’re going to load up Ukraine with so many weapons it’ll
make your head spin. Then, you’re gonna lose big time, and Ukraine
will take back everything. But hey, it’s up to you, sweethearts!”
On Fri, 8 Nov 2024 at 07:04, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote:
Marcuswrote:
Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa
because of climate change. I suppose they’ll end up in
Europe, creating yet more folks like Trump to rile people
up about it.
Until the AMOC turns over and plunges Northern Europe into the
kind of winter cold Maine-Nova Scotia currently "enjoy"?
there was some B post-apocalypse movie starring a polar vortex
which ended with all of Canada/US lined up at the MX border
asking to be let in to avoid turning into popsicles... of
course, the style of the movie had the sweet long-suffering
people in the land of Manana politely inviting all the Karen's
and Matt Gaetz's into their (now overwhelmed? country)...
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