In the last year there has a been a dramatic increase in capability. Sonnet 
4.5 can now run and debug agentic workloads by itself. It can do deep analysis 
that is very relevant to Wall Street that a room full of people couldn’t do. 

Now let’s say that there isn’t a market for that. That would mean that 
inference data centers would stop building out. But training centers would 
remain, and at the very least we’d still have all the frontier models, which 
are already very capable. These will fit on a thumb drive.

What it would mean would be that prices would go up for AI and that there would 
be more of a cliff between the haves and have nots. We’d still have millions of 
very capable GPUs, including Blackwell. Like real estate, a glut would mean 
drop in price for that hardware. 

So, I’m not seeing the crisis. People living in the past, in denial, who will 
be eclipsed by the efficiency of AI. 

From: Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Tom Johnson 
<[email protected]>
Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 6:02 AM
To: Friam@redfish. com <[email protected]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock 
collapse? 

What do you we think about Chris's analysis? 



=======================
Tom Johnson
Inst. for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexico
505-577-6482
======================= 



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Christopher J Feola from Perfecting Equilibrium 
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
Date: Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 5:35 AM
Subject: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?
To: <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> 



AIs will be enormously important some day. Today is not that day. 

͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ 
­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­͏ ­ 

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The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? 
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=830872&amp;post_id=179029669&amp;utm_source=post-email-title&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=9x3n&amp;token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0NjI4MDMsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3OTAyOTY2OSwiaWF0IjoxNzYzMjk2NDk2LCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg0OTYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi04MzA4NzIiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.pwme8GZ1ptwbuz-0LaUTJChHv8aYhGY_maB0WOnE1cE>
 AIs will be enormously important some day. Today is not that day. Christopher 
J Feola <https://substack.com/@perfectingequilibrium> 

Nov 16 

<https://substack.com/@perfectingequilibrium> 



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Perfecting Equilibrium Volume Four, Issue 23 The word is about, there’s 
something evolving,
Whatever may come, the world keeps revolving...
They say the next big thing is here,
That the revolution’s near, 
But to me it seems quite clear
That’s it’s all just a little bit of history repeating.
The newspapers shout a new style is growing,
But it don’t know if it’s coming or going, 
There is fashion, there is fad
Some is good, some is bad
And the joke rather sad,
That it’s all just a little bit of History repeating. 
And I’ve seen it before
And I’ll see it again
Yes I’ve seen it before
Just little bits of history repeating 
<https://substack.com/redirect/1f3f0fa9-aae4-44b5-a224-d2ee81b5e002?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 
The Sunday Reader, Nov 16 2025 America Online was the most important company in 
the world for one brief, shining moment. 
The new millennium dawned on an unstoppable tech wave. The Y2K bug had turned 
out to be a big nothing. And 10 days into the year 2000 AOL announced the 
largest merger in US history, buying Time Warner to form a $350 billion 
mega-corp, the media model for the 21st Century. For a moment it was the third 
most valuable company in the world. 
And then the bottom fell out. 
The Dot Com boom turned into the Dot Bomb crash. AOL was able to buy Time 
Warner because it had growth and enormous equity. After the Dot Bomb crash it 
had neither. It was effectively absorbed by Time Warner, the company it had 
planned to lead into the future. 
And that was a better fate than many of the Dot Com boom companies, which 
simply collapsed and disappeared. 
And that crushed Sun Microsystems. 
Sun had been riding high, powered by the enormous profits generated by selling 
servers to Dot Com boom companies. Those startups kept growing, and buying 
servers to host more web traffic, and growing, and buying more and more servers 
to host more and more users. 
And then the bottom fell out. And all the accounting tricks came scurrying out. 
The rise of Linux on cheap Intel boxes, it turned out, was a deadly threat to 
Sun. Which Sun had countered by loaning money at below market rates to startups 
to buy Sun equipment. And then booking the loans as assets. 
Think about it: Sun would offer a below-market loan to MyKewlWebStartup.com, 
which would then use the loan to buy servers from Sun. Sun would book the sale 
as revenue, and keep the loan on its books as an asset. 
Cheap finance tricks like this produce great numbers as long as the market 
keeps growing, and you can shuffle money fast enough from one pocket to 
another. When the market resets…the whole thing comes crashing down. Sun went 
from being the Dot in Dot Com to being sold off for parts. 
But no one is stupid enough to do that again, right? 
Right? 
Buy Me a Cup of Coffee 
<https://substack.com/redirect/a223694d-ddf9-4cb7-a347-8e3c849708e8?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 
Please meet Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world at $4.68 TRILLION. 
At a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 54.13. For comparison, those pikers over at 
Apple are worth a paltry $4 trillion at a P/E of 36.49. 
Nvidia’s market cap has grown 40 percent year-to-date. That’s four times better 
than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is up 10 percent year to date. 
But Nvidia’s wild stock growth is justified, right? They have huge orders for 
their industry-leading chips that power AI data centers, like the announced $40 
billion purchase by Oracle. 
Which needs the chips to build data centers for the $300 billion deal to supply 
computing power to OpenAI. 
But where will OpenAI get that kind of money? Its current annual revenue is 
only $12 billion. 
Oh, here we go: Nvidia is investing $100 billion in OpenAI. 
So Nvidia gives $100 billion to OpenAI, which gives it to Oracle, which uses it 
to buy $40 billion in chips from…Nvidia. 
How does Nvidia profit? 
It makes it up on the volume. 
If this all sounds familiar, it should. As Goldman Sachs told investors: 
NVIDIA’s investments flow out as funding, returns are realised via GPU sales, 
therefore inflating the reported growth. It’s the same round-robin accounting 
Sun was running during the Dot Com Boom. 
It’s why Sun didn’t survive the Dot Bomb crash. 
Please consider supporting Perfecting Equilibrium by becoming a subscriber. 

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Now I know what you’re thinking, dear reader: Feola, who cares about the stock 
market? And look at the huge layoffs taking place because of AI! Doesn’t that 
mean we’re entering the Age of AI!?! 
True, the stock market is at best amusing. And you should never, ever invest 
based on what I write. I look at macro trends; think years, not months, never 
mind day trading. 
And there’s a reason a stock market crash is called a correction. All tech 
waves follow the same pattern: 
· Some nerd comes up with some crazy thing. Everyone makes fun of the crazy 
nerd 
· The crazy thing starts to work; there are few spectacular breakthroughs 
· The hype wave launches! This new tech will change the world! 
· It’s the tech that launches a thousand startups 
· Those startups start running hard aground on reality. Infrastructure must be 
built. Annoying users won’t use the tech as predicted and insist on doing it 
their way 
· There’s a correction, and all those startup mistakes die 
· The survivors buy up the resources of the failures at pennies on the dollar, 
and the real growth phase begins 
It’s happened several times during the last quarter-century. When was the last 
time you Asked Jeeves? Looked things up on Yahoo! or Alta Vista? 
How many of your friends are sporting Blackberries or Windows CE smartphones? 
The reason for accounting shenanigans is always the same: the growth isn’t 
there. If there’s growth, there’s no need for Stupid Accountant Tricks. 
And the reason the growth isn’t there is that AI Just. Doesn’t. Work. 
Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report 
uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero 
return. The outcomes are so starkly divided across both buyers (enterprises, 
mid-market, SMBs) and builders (startups, vendors, consultancies) that we call 
it the GenAI Divide. Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in 
value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L impact: MIT- 
<https://substack.com/redirect/777df2aa-943e-48d7-ab1a-c844b6ca9289?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>STATE
 OF AI IN BUSINESS 2025 
<https://substack.com/redirect/777df2aa-943e-48d7-ab1a-c844b6ca9289?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 
Well it’s early days; meanwhile AI is putting all sorts of creatives and 
freelancers out of work, right? 
Right? 
Scale AI and the Center for AI Safety 
<https://substack.com/redirect/b0f53de5-a05e-4d45-aa19-eedbacdfc54f?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 ran hundreds of tasks through an array of AIs, then gave the resulting work 
product to a panel of 40 judges. 
Less than 3 percent were acceptable. Gemini couldn’t even hit 1 percent; 99.2 
percent of its work was unacceptable. 
Overall, 46 percent of the work was poor quality; 36 percent was incomplete; 18 
percent of the files were corrupted; and 15 percent had inconsistencies. 
We’ve been discussing why the current generation of Large Language Models – so 
called AIs – are an evolutionary dead end. 
<https://substack.com/redirect/6b70ab18-082f-496c-8fec-8c8476ec8a88?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
AIs are doomed dinosaurs as we enter the Information Age 
<https://substack.com/redirect/6b70ab18-082f-496c-8fec-8c8476ec8a88?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 
Christopher J Feola <https://substack.com/profile/85705212-christopher-j-feola> 

· 

Sep 7 

<https://substack.com/redirect/6b70ab18-082f-496c-8fec-8c8476ec8a88?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 

<https://substack.com/redirect/6b70ab18-082f-496c-8fec-8c8476ec8a88?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
Perfecting Equilibrium Volume Four, Issue 12 
<https://substack.com/redirect/6b70ab18-082f-496c-8fec-8c8476ec8a88?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>

Read full story 

So a correction is not only coming, it is necessary. Nature is red in tooth and 
claw, and so is actual capitalism, which occurs during shifts like this one. 
Big corporations spend enormous time and money capturing regulators and 
politicians to stymie competition. Economic corrections wipe out all the failed 
startup ideas, and fatally wound many of the big legacy corporations. 
So a correction is necessary, and healthy for the economy and society in 
general. 
If you’re the one being corrected, not so much. It’s no fun being Sun, or 
Blackberry. 
Or their employees. There’s no return on being the world’s best Blackberry 
programmer when there are no more Blackberries. 
If AIs are failing and AI companies are resorting to accounting tricks to show 
growth, why is there such carnage in the labor market? 
Last month was the worst October for layoffs since 2003, according to 
Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Amazon is laying off 14,000. Microsoft has cut 
15,000. Intel plans to lay off 21,000 this year. 
Outside of tech, UPS has cut 48,000, and Target is cutting 1,800 corporate 
employees. 
And everyone is blaming AI. 
So if AI doesn’t work, what gives? 
Simple. AI is a handy excuse that sounds way better to boards and investors 
than we screwed up and hired way too many people. 
Several forces are at work here. We’re transitioning from Industrial Age 
companies with massive layers of middle management to the much flatter 
corporate structures of the Information Age. And even though current AI 
implementations are failing, companies are investing in AI looking for The Next 
Big Thing. And that requires defunding old business lines. 
And X, formerly know as Twitter, still exists, running just as well as it did 
before Elon Musk bought it and laid off 80 percent of the staff. Which left 
tech execs looking at their crowded offices and going Hmmmmmmmmmm… 
There is a bright future awaiting us in the Information Age. And it will 
include actual working AIs. (And yes, I’m hoping Data Object Language Models 
will be in that mix.) 
<https://substack.com/redirect/16c1a36c-f8df-4146-a660-94afcb66de51?j=eyJ1IjoiOXgzbiJ9.j2YJcg7r_Ks-v2w_82KwVnfJcIEQvzIifr8Nr2AEECg>
 

Alas, the road between here and there is treacherous, filled with layoffs, 
unemployment, corporate collapses and the disappearance of entire classes of 
jobs. 
AIs will be an enormously important piece of the economy some day. 
Today is not that day. 


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