I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux release. I started 
downloading pretty much immediately and looking for a PC to sacrifice. It was 
hardly capitalist hype. 

From: Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of glen <[email protected]>
Date: Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
To: [email protected] <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock 
collapse? 

Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about fscking Twitter. To 
argue that it's "running just as well as it did" seems a bit discordant. But at 
some altitude, he's right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was 
before. Every time it crosses my gaze, I wonder why people still use it ... or 
bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>.

My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided to avoid it. It 
works great with Claude (and some others), but not with gpt-oss or codestral. 
Both of those work fine if *I* manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, 
which I've been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I was 
mostly using ultrix & minix in '95. But sporadically, as with the Windows 11 
update breaking recovery, all the dorks get all riled up and talk about linux 
finally being ready for the desktop. [sigh]

The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll fill our nests with 
whatever stupid little shiny thing the capitalists bother to hype.

On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> The first example that comes to mind are malls. Malls aren't needed now so 
> many of them are closing.
> Some people see something bad about that. I see something good about that: 
> Ruts get erased and new opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed.
> We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and there's some 
> adaptation that is required.
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of glen
> Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock 
> collapse?
> 
> But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as guilty of preemptive 
> registration as the others. Short-term markets distort everything. The task 
> is to free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and marketeers. Once 
> the terms are unbound, we can discover which formalisms fit and which don't.
> 
> If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is amiss. The 
> disagreement is about *what* is amiss. Same as it Ever Was.
> 
> On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> But what ARE these investments right now? It seems to me they are well 
>> established companies: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. NVIDIA has 
>> existed and will exist should AI revenue dry up, just like it outlasted 
>> Ethereum mining.
>>
>> The new players aren’t yet public companies. OpenAI has a longer path to 
>> profitability, but Anthropic (technical users) is already making good 
>> progress @ $7B. AI has already penetrated education and will likely spread 
>> more. People will become dependent on it like they are dependent on cars.
>>
>> *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David West 
>> <[email protected]>
>> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
>> *To: *[email protected] <[email protected]>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock 
>> collapse?
>>
>> Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem that they do not, the 
>> fact that the vast majority of users/adopters of AI are dramatically less 
>> technologically compentent than either of these gentlemen. The manager that 
>> is positive that AI will eliminate most if not all of his human employees, 
>> the student using an LLM to "cheat," the social media addicts taken with the 
>> latest AI fad bots, etc. etc. almost certainly will become disillusioned and 
>> turn away from AI.
>>
>> Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see immediate—not long 
>> term—return on investment are not going to remain invested. Lot's of other 
>> peoples money will be lost as a byproduct.
>>
>> The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to sustain all the current 
>> investment. Maybe one large AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost 
>> tons of money for a long long time).
>>
>> davew
>>
>> On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
>>
>> I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but 
>> it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be 
>> bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular architecture, 
>> to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see a transition away from 
>> throwing money at developing the most general form and a move toward more 
>> idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I continue to think that 
>> Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and 
>> it has yet to come to my attention what happens when Transformers attempt to 
>> replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad 
>> at go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this perspective, has 
>> been here for a decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising 
>> effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database querying 
>> language. What people do with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly 
>> have an impact. In the
>> meantime, I am excited to see what happens as programmers learn to use 
>> formal type theories as pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to 
>> compositionality.
>

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