Agreed LARGE corpuses across many  are needed to make judgments.  In the case 
of SPAM 97% is pretty easy, 98% is getting hard, 99% is minimum for enterprise. 

Then you start measuring into the decimals and yes its needed due to the mass 
volume customers get. Its not trivial to go last mile .1% at a time due to 
peoples judgment of what is spam and what is not.  We get complaints all the 
time from people who have signed up for newsletters and argue they are getting 
SPAM'd.

Our SLA FP rates are 1/300,000 and the industry is anywhere from 1/150,000 to 
1/400,000 depending on their definition of an FP.



-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On 
Behalf Of [email protected]
Sent: Thursday, April 07, 2011 10:11 AM
To: [email protected]
Cc: [email protected]; [email protected]
Subject: Re: [funsec] Im lovin google spam filter

On Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:49:34 EDT, [email protected] said:

> If we take 100 people on this list, have them all look in their 
> backyards and report if there is any paper or plastic blowing around, 
> I'll bet we can come up with a fairly high percentage of us that don't 
> have any paper or plastic blowing around.  I'll further say that I'll 
> bet the number would be within a standard deviation of 4% error.  So, 
> if 96% of us don't have any paper or plastic blowing around in our yards, 
> could we safely say that no-one litters?

No, you can safely say that the population average of litter-free backyards is 
has a 70% chance between 92% and 100%, and about 95% chance of being between 
88% and 100%. (Yes, it's likely to be closer to a chi-squared curve than a 
gaussian bell curve due to the constraint of one tail).

The problem is that careful analysis is needed - I'll make a prediction that 
yards with chain link fences have a lot higher level of wind-born litter than 
unfenced yards.  This of course impacts your analysis of litter sources.

And incidentally, Rick *has* done the "take 100 people" type analysis, which is 
why he commented that (basically) the plural of anecdote isn't data.
To report this as spam, please forward to [email protected].  Thank you.

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