-----Original Message-----
From: Jay Hanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wednesday, September 02, 1998 9:55 PM
Subject: Re: BAD DRIVES OUT GOOD
>From: Ed Weick <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
>>I read Tainter's paper on complexity. The thought that struck me when I
>>read it was that societies need not disintegrate nor become chaotic nor
>leap
>>to a higher plane, they can simply ossify, get stuck, and become capable
of
>>only the most incremental progress. Eventually, but usually over a long
>
>There are no doubt many factors that determine whether civilizations
>collapse slowly like Rome or quickly like the FSU and ex-Yugoslavia. I
>believe a large factor is ethnic homogeneity. After all, our culture
>demands that we find someone else to blame. It's another positive feedback
>if the scapegoats are within our own borders.
My point about Rome was that it never really collapsed. Over the centuries,
it became transformed into civilizations which were no longer really Roman,
but which were based on Roman laws and institutions along with
considerable colouration from ancient Grecian institutions, particularly in
the east. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia have not really collapsed either.
One of the major problems in Russia today is that it still relies on laws,
institutions, and methods of administration that were imposed during the
Soviet period, things eminently unsuitable to the operation of neo-liberal
democracy and economics. And if you peeled those back, you would probably
find all kinds of antecedents from pre-revolutionary days. Russia is in a
state of chaos now, but you can bet that, someday soon, someone, or some
group, will begin to exert some pressure and control. And you can also bet
that the methods used will be Russian, not Western.
As far as Yugoslavia goes, it never really existed. The Serbs existed, the
Croatians existed, the Bosnians existed, the Muslims existed, the Greek
Orthodox existed, the Roman Catholics existed, but never the Yugoslavians.
Marshall Tito tried to make Yugoslavia exist, but it began to fall apart
into its may historic divisions when he died. What we have now are the
Balkans as they have been for a very long time and will likely be for a very
long time.
But my main point was that civilizations don't collapse in the sense that
you seem to suggest ours will. Your postings make it sound as though we
will go merrily coasting along until we wake up one morning, perhaps in
2040, and discover that OH MY GOD, THERE'S NO MORE OIL!!! We will then go
running about in a mad spiral, hands in the air, and disappear into the
black hole of history.
While I accept that we will change, that we will probably decline as a
civilization, and that our great-great grandchildren may have to live quite
differently from ourselves, I don't see things happening massively or
suddenly. Except perhaps in the Americas, where disease and tribal rivalry
played the major role, or in other cases where wars were enormously
destructive, civilizations have gone about their declines over long periods
of time. Our civilization is the most complex ever. It could not be
disassembled overnight. While we behave foolishly much of the time, we are
also able to respond to threats and crises. Only time will tell whether our
foolish or wise selves will ultimately win out.
Ed Weick
