At 10:26 AM 10/1/97 -0700, Harry Pollard wrote:
>
>On the other hand, we have enough coal to last us 4,000 years. In England
This is not true. Energy from ANY source is subject to the same
thermodynamic limits: the "energy cost" of recovery. If the energy
profit for U.S. coal continues to drop at its present rate, it will
be thermodynamically "unrecoverable" by 2040. [p. 67]
[ http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0870812424/5030-2100170-104676 ]
Moreover, energy prices are set to skyrocket because global oil
production is set to peak. [ http://dieoff.org/page122.htm ]
In REAL WORLD ECONOMICS there is an ABSOLUTE CEILING on how much the
U.S. can pay for imported energy: it's the amount of energy required
to produce the goods which are used to buy that imported energy.
Japan and Germany can afford to pay MORE for imported energy because
they are more "energy efficient" than us.
Once the price of imported energy exceeds the ABSOLUTE CEILING that
we can pay, we will become destitute. We probably can't even use our
military to SEIZE energy because the energy cost of military operations
would result in a net energy loss.
Welcome to the REAL WORLD ECONOMICS of absolute energy scarcity --
it's here.
Jay
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"As long as we remain trapped by the ideology of competitive growth,
there is no solution. We are reminded of the South Indian monkey
trap, in which a hollowed-out coconut is fastened to a stake by a
chain and filled with rice. There is a hole in the coconut just
large enough for the monkey to put his extended hand through but
not large enough to withdraw his fist full of rice. The monkey is
trapped only by his inability to reorder his values, to recognize
that freedom is worth more than a handful of rice."
-- Herman Daly
