----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Hollinshead <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>According to Marchetti (see IIASA references) global consumption of natural
>gas as a proportion of total consumption will peak in 2017, when a new
>source will take over.
I don't put much faith in IIASA generally, and Marchetti in particular.
I have an IIASA/Marchetti paper that claims the carrying capacity of earth
is one trillion people! Clearly these people aren't too concerned with
reality. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?RR78007
What new energy source does Marchetti see taking over from fossil fuel?
Pixie dust? Why hasn't David Pimentel heard of it? Like Yogi Berra, I
feel dejav vu all over again:
"What about the energy needed for the super-industrial society? Scientists
and engineers are generally agreed that a sufficient research and
development effort will make available before the year 2000 several new
technologies that can provide the world with nearly unlimited and economical
quantities of clean energy from renewable or inexhaustible resources. The
technologically advanced nations could obtain most of their energy
requirements from these sources by the year 2025. Some of these sources
would also be feasible for many developing nations. Furthermore,
conventional and currently unconventional fossil fuels will last for
centuries. Thus, if the appropriate decisions are made, our grandchildren
will not be plauged by an energy crisis. In addition, if we relieve the
pressure on the traditional fuel supplies by shifting rapidly to the
advanced technologies, then more 'natural' oil and gas would be available to
less developed nations." [p 243, WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,
by Herman Kahn & Hudson Institute; Westview, 1979]
IIASA/Marchetti seem to be the intellectual and ethical descendents of
Hudson/Kahn. Where are their net energy calculations? I just don't
believe these guys.
Jay -- www.dieoff.com
