Hi!
In case you missed it!
This is the Economist’s view of improvement in the Middle-East, wary but hopeful.
Harry
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Jan 16th 2004
From The Economist print edition
DESPITE THE MISERY OF ISRAEL-PALESTINE AND THE BLOODY UNCERTAINTY IN
IRAQ, THERE ARE HOPEFUL SIGNS ACROSS THE WIDER REGION
“There is no longer any place for dictatorship,” said the president.
“Democracy is the choice of the modern age for all peoples.” Was this
George Bush, preaching reform to Arab leaders? No, it was one of those
leaders themselves, Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh, addressing a recent
human-rights conference. Apart from blasts at Israel and demands for a
swift American exit from Iraq, Mr Saleh's speech might have been
scripted in Washington.
In the wake of the Iraq war, many Arabs still think of America as a
bully. Fully 94% of 1,600 callers-in to a recent debate shown on the
al-Jazeera satellite channel agreed with the proposition that America
is engaged in a “crusade” against Islam. Yet Mr Saleh is not alone
among Arab leaders in finding it politic to endorse, in words at
least, the agenda for reform that the superpower has sketched for the
region.
The US State Department gives information on America's foreign
relations, including the Middle East peace process.The Israeli
government publishes Mr Sharon's statements. The Palestinian Authority
and the PLO propose differing solutions to the peace process.
The changes do not mean that dictators are falling like dominoes, as
some of the cheerleaders for America's invasion of Iraq were
prophesying last year. But nor has the region seen the mayhem
predicted by many of the war's opponents. Some of the changes have
nothing to do with the war: in many countries, moves to widen
political participation, liberalise commerce and contain conflicts
have been under way for some time.
The so-called “Arab system”, institutionalised in the Arab League
whose yearning for a place on the world stage occasionally grated with
America, has been crumbling since the shock of Saddam Hussein's
invasion of Kuwait in 1990. And many Arab regimes have long been
zealous in pursuit of one big American objective, to exterminate
terrorism (except, of course, when it is Palestinian).
But the pace of change has accelerated in recent months, with some
noted gains for American policy. With much American cajoling, for
example, the Sudanese government and southern rebels look close to
agreeing to end that country's long civil war, so helping to calm the
troubled Horn of Africa for the first time in a generation. Libya and
Iran have both opted to expose their nuclear programmes to outside
monitoring, and so helped to reduce the potential for a regional arms
race. And Iran, while shying from any formal embrace with America (see
article), is quietly courting America's close friends in the region,
such as Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In North Africa, Algeria remains shaky and violent, the three-decade-
old Western Sahara conflict continues to fester, and both Tunisia and
Egypt still fake democracy while stifling dissent. Yet all the
countries in the region, including now Libya, openly back such
American aims as reducing trade barriers, while quietly offering help
against al-Qaeda to the Pentagon and CIA. Egypt's gutter press hectors
as loudly as in the days when it was bankrolled by Mr Hussein, but in
recent months the more dominant state-owned media have muted their
routine bashing of America.
Long-time American protectorates, such as Jordan and the smaller Gulf
monarchies have moved more boldly to please their patron. None is near
to becoming a full-fledged democracy, but all have embarked on more
liberal paths. After a decade of virtual legislative standstill, for
example, Kuwait's government is promoting educational reform, a
redrawing of electoral districts to make voting fairer, and a removal
of barriers to foreign investment.
Even Saudi Arabia is in the throes of change. Despite the fact that
America's imprimatur raises hackles among conservatives, the kind of
policies that American diplomats have urged for years are now firmly
on the agenda. These include a widening of the franchise through
promised local elections, the opening of the upstream oil sector to
foreign firms, purging the state curriculum of incitement against non-
Muslims, and recognising the Shia minority's rights. The reforms have
been applied hesitantly, unevenly and inefficiently, but the resisters
to change are now, for the first time, on the defensive. In one area,
at least, the Saudi government is acting firmly, to America's
pleasure, with an all-out assault on Islamic militants.
Not yet a Damascene conversion
Syria is the region's one country that still seems to resist American
pressure. Yet this may simply reflect its bigger legacy of bad blood
with the superpower; its isolated rulers may feel they have more to
lose by knuckling under. Nor have the Americans hinted at what Syria
might gain (apart from not being clobbered in its turn) by obeying
their orders to abandon chemical weapons, allow greater freedom,
withdraw its army from Lebanon and end support for the Hizbullah
fighters there.
Having recognised their serious miscalculation in predicting that Iraq
would prove another Vietnam, however, Syria's rulers seem to be
looking for ways to placate the superpower. President Bashar Assad has
made overtures to Turkey, a key American ally and long-time foe of
Syria, and has also said he wants to talk peace with Israel. Mutual
loathing, Mr Assad's precarious internal position, and the reluctance
of Israel's government to make territorial concessions all conspire to
make Syrian-Israeli peace unlikely any time soon, yet even the start
of a process would do much to soothe the region's nerves.
Oddly enough, those that have done the least to please America are its
closest Middle Eastern ally, Israel, and the feeblest of its regimes,
the Palestinian Authority. This time last year, the American
administration was soothing Arab anxiety over the looming war in Iraq
with promises that America's victory would be followed by a huge push
for Palestinian-Israeli peace. Mr Bush did announce a plan. But
neither side has yet begun to implement it, and the Americans, for the
time being, are no longer pushing at all hard.
********************************************
Henry George School of Social Science
of Los Angeles
Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042
Tel: 818 352-4141 -- Fax: 818 353-2242
http://haledward.home.comcast.net
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