Keith, have you looked as consumer
behavior figures? I am wondering if they might not show a slacking of
consumerism, and thus a fall in demand for products and services.
I am asking this because for the last
couple of years I have been personally turning against having and buying ‘stuff.’
I’m actively getting rid of stuff and am feeling by far the better for
it. Perhaps this is happening on a larger scale?
I wonder if FWers might be sharing in
this, too?
Lawry
From:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Saturday, July 09, 2005
10:44 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [Futurework] Join the
club, America!
The latest job fugures for the US in June have just been published.
Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight, describes the American job market
as 'plodding along'.
I would describe it as 'running down'. At normal rats of economic growth (which
America is still supposed to be experiencing according to the statistics) the
US job market should be growing at about 200,00-220,00 new jobs a month. Even
the figure of 146,00 for June exaggerates the true picture because many of these,
if not a majority, are part-time jobs.
Join the club, America! Join the stagnant economies of Japan, Germany, France,
Italy and several more in Western Europe. Only the UK is still growing jobs but
these are public service jobs -- between 600,000 and 800,000 in the last seven
years of the Labour government. All the UK economists I've read in the last few
weeks are expecting a downturn soon as consumer spending collapses. Then we'll
join the club. Sometime this year in our case.
And jobs going to China are not to blame. Depending on which economist you read
the number of jobs that are disappearing in the developed countries due to
automation and computerisation is anything between 1.5 and 3 times the number
of jobs going abroad. It's the service economy, stupid. Also, Asian
manufacturing companies being established in America are probably creating more
new factory jobs than American firms are -- as is happening in the UK.
This absence of a new tranche of significant consumer goods able to take
Western economies further is something which Democrat and Republican, Labour
and Tory, have no answer within the terms of reference of the last century.
It's an entirely new ball game.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
US LABOUR MARKET 'PLODDING ALONG'
Christopher Swann
The US economy created a net 146,000 jobs in June, once again below the figure
forecast by analysts, according to figures released yesterday by the Labor
Department.
The figure was partly depressed by 24,000 job losses in the manufacturing
sector. These were concentrated in motor cars, as vehicle manufacturers cut
production to cope with slowing demand.
But the data were not quite as grim as the headline suggested. Job growth in
the two previous months was 44,000 higher than previously thought. This left
the overall level of employment close to expectations.The jobless rate fell
from 5.1 per cent to 5 per cent - the lowest level since the terrorist attacks
of September 2001.
"The labour market is just plodding along, with no signs of an
acceleration or deceleration," said Nigel Gault, at Global Insight, a
consultancy.
Economists agreed nothing in the figures was likely to change the outlook for
interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to push rates
higher until they reach a more neutral setting.
The average rate of job growth over the past three months was 181,000 -
slightly higher than the previous three-month average of 158,000. There are
other signs that unemployment is still falling. First-time claims for
unemployment benefit have edged down. The four-week average to June 18 was
334,000 but the average to July 2 was 321,000.
The average hourly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers - about
80 per cent of the workforce - rose just 0.2 per cent over the month and 2.7
per cent over the year in June. This compares to a rate of inflation of 2.8 per
cent in May.
Financial Times -- 9 July 2005
>>>>
