At 15:43 10/07/2005 -0400, you wrote:
Keith, have you looked as consumer behavior figures? I am wondering if they might not show a slacking of consumerism, and thus a fall in demand for products and services.
I am asking this because for the last couple of years I have been personally turning against having and buying stuff.Im actively getting rid of stuff and am feeling by far the better for it. Perhaps this is happening on a larger scale?
I wonder if FWers might be sharing in this, too?
I suspect you're easing off because of age. This is usual. The significant point about consumerism in the last 20-30 years is that there have been no significant personal or household goods that are as innovative and initially expensive as the radio, telephone, central heating, camera, recorders, washing machines, cars, TV and so on were in the last century. All these spread from top to bottom of the social classes and drove the economic system with massive profits and re-investment at each level in each case. At any one time the average household knew what they wanted to buy next -- and saved hard for. What we've had since about 1985 have been relatively trivial -- cheap electronic equivalents of last century's goods (e.g. digital cameras) or marginal embellisments (SUVs). What we've had by way of "economic growth" since then has disappeared into a morass of other things -- the diseconomics of modern metropolitan-suburban life, the growth of government bureaucracy (growing faster now in Bush's term than ever before), hedge funds, increased foreign exchange speculation and investment in developing countries now playing catch-up. None of it since about 1985 has gone into the pockets and standard of living of ordinary folk who thrived during most of the last century.
Keith
Lawry
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Saturday, July 09, 2005 10:44 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [Futurework] Join the club, America!
The latest job fugures for the US in June have just been published. Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight, describes the American job market as 'plodding along'.
I would describe it as 'running down'. At normal rats of economic growth (which America is still supposed to be experiencing according to the statistics) the US job market should be growing at about 200,00-220,00 new jobs a month. Even the figure of 146,00 for June exaggerates the true picture because many of these, if not a majority, are part-time jobs.
Join the club, America! Join the stagnant economies of Japan, Germany, France, Italy and several more in Western Europe. Only the UK is still growing jobs but these are public service jobs -- between 600,000 and 800,000 in the last seven years of the Labour government. All the UK economists I've read in the last few weeks are expecting a downturn soon as consumer spending collapses. Then we'll join the club. Sometime this year in our case.
And jobs going to China are not to blame. Depending on which economist you read the number of jobs that are disappearing in the developed countries due to automation and computerisation is anything between 1.5 and 3 times the number of jobs going abroad. It's the service economy, stupid. Also, Asian manufacturing companies being established in America are probably creating more new factory jobs than American firms are -- as is happening in the UK.
This absence of a new tranche of significant consumer goods able to take Western economies further is something which Democrat and Republican, Labour and Tory, have no answer within the terms of reference of the last century. It's an entirely new ball game.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
US LABOUR MARKET 'PLODDING ALONG'
Christopher Swann
The US economy created a net 146,000 jobs in June, once again below the figure forecast by analysts, according to figures released yesterday by the Labor Department.
The figure was partly depressed by 24,000 job losses in the manufacturing sector. These were concentrated in motor cars, as vehicle manufacturers cut production to cope with slowing demand.
But the data were not quite as grim as the headline suggested. Job growth in the two previous months was 44,000 higher than previously thought. This left the overall level of employment close to expectations.The jobless rate fell from 5.1 per cent to 5 per cent - the lowest level since the terrorist attacks of September 2001.
"The labour market is just plodding along, with no signs of an acceleration or deceleration," said Nigel Gault, at Global Insight, a consultancy.
Economists agreed nothing in the figures was likely to change the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to push rates higher until they reach a more neutral setting.
The average rate of job growth over the past three months was 181,000 - slightly higher than the previous three-month average of 158,000. There are other signs that unemployment is still falling. First-time claims for unemployment benefit have edged down. The four-week average to June 18 was 334,000 but the average to July 2 was 321,000.
The average hourly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers - about 80 per cent of the workforce - rose just 0.2 per cent over the month and 2.7 per cent over the year in June. This compares to a rate of inflation of 2.8 per cent in May.
Financial Times -- 9 July 2005
>>>>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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