Hi, Karen,

 

To offer some ideas about Sistani,  I don’t think he would be particularly helpful when it cam to talking with al-Qaida, but he might be helpful in talking generally with the Muslim world.  However, the place Sistani is critical for us is in Iraq itself.   Right now, we are there at Sistani’s sufferance. If he comes out militantly against our presence there, you could count on your hands the number of weeks we could remain there. (We have to keep in mind that the Iraqi government soldiers and police are recruited almost wholly from the Shi’i population, which is aggravating the propensity for civil war there.) If Sistani wants to bog us down there and make Iraq into an enduring, worsening, and iconic US defeat, he can easily do so. So if we want anything approaching a diginifed withdrawal, it is entirely dependent on Sistani’s good-will.

 

So, we should be in close and secretive talks with Sistani, led by an American who will through his personal demeanor, knowledge and wisdom has credibility in Sistani’s eyes, but it also must be an American who has deep influence within official Washington.

 

I hope these comments are helpful. I look forward to your further thoughts.

 

Cheers,

Lawry

 


From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Karen Watters Cole
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2005 8:30 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [Futurework] Talking with al-Qaida

 

Time to Talk to Al Qaeda? http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/09/14/time_to_talk_to_al_qaeda/

 

Zarqawi declares war on Shiites On Wednesday, the Sunni-Muslim al Qaeda said in an Internet posting it was waging a nationwide suicide bombing campaign to avenge the military offensive against Sunni rebels in Tal Afar, in which more than 200 insurgents have been killed and several hundreds captured.  "Days pass and battles are numbered and the goal is one: the Crusader-Shi'ite war against Sunnis. Shi'ite districts in the city were avoided and a war of ethnic cleansing war was directed at Sunnis," he said.

"The interests of Crusaders and Shi'ites have coincided with each other."

Zarqawi also warned Iraqis and tribal leaders they would be killed if they collaborated with U.S. forces.  "Whoever is found to be a member of the National Guard, army or is a spy will be killed and his house will be demolished.

 http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-09-14T194452Z_01_DIT467644_RTRIDST_0_INTERNATIONAL-IRAQ-ZARQAWI-SHIITES-1-DC.XML

Lawry, who would be a possible candidate to broach secretive talks with Al Qaeda? Sistani? I can’t think of any Westerner…

After yesterday’s slaughter, according to Juan Cole, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani strictly forbade reprisals by Shiites, saying, "If half of Iraq's Shiites were killed, it would not lead to a sectarian war." Sistani is keenly aware that the guerrilla strategy is to sucker the Shiites into attacking Sunni Arabs on a large scale, producing a civil war that would destabilize Iraq and give the Sunni guerrillas an open for making a coup and taking over.. http://www.juancole.com/

 

Will they heed Sistani’s call?

 

Clearly, with Zarqawi intensifying attacks on civilians, full civil war will erupt, even as the patch-worked constitution heads to a vote. This week an Iraqi official slammed the US military/private contractors. The more important deal making seems to be over pipelines and military equipment.

 

I don’t see how Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld are going to spin this, since their political capital is nearing bankruptcy.

 

Karen

 

 

 

 

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