RE: [Futurework] can't win for losing Part 2

[Harry Pollard]

Karen,   Remember my prediction – that hurricanes would start to be measured out at sea, not at landfall – our greatest concern.   Typically they build up force over the water, then diminish at landfall.   It doesn’t matter how powerful they are out in the ocean. The records of landfall force goes back 150 years.   There were 3 Category 5 hurricanes at landfall in the last century – the most intense in 1935, the others in 1969 and 1992.   Much more important from the point of view of deadliest is the enormous increase in population. Where there used to be sand, there are row upon row of mansions.   The 10th most intense hurricane was the Great Miami which hit in 1926. Hurricane experts estimate that the damage then, $100 million – if one allows for inflation and increase of population - would be $77.5 billion were the same hurricane to hit today.   So, although the hurricanes may not have changed a lot, the places they hit have changed mightily. And this present rising part of the hurricane cycle may continue for 10-40 years – before the intensities turn down.     Need it happen?   Here’s a snippet sent to me – off list - from a Futurist on another list.   “Having lived in Guam and Okinawa, where typhoons -- typically of greater magnitude than the storms in the Atlantic basin -- threaten the islands several times every year, I can testify from personal experience that engineers know how to build structures that will withstand the forces of nature that come from the ocean.  I can also attest to the fact that gifted architects can make those structures aesthetically pleasing.  And in the long run, they're more economical: minor repairs to a more expensive building cost far less than constant replacement of cheaper structures.”   “So here's the question I'd put to you: Why don't we in the continental US embrace such construction?  What is it about the markets that encourages us to continue rebuilding in the same fashion that led to our losses in the first place?”   I answered him about the ‘markets’ – but his point is pertinent.   Why not build properly in the first place? So, instead of an evacuation, people can retire safely to their homes and wait it out.   Harry   ******************************** Henry George School of Social Science of Los Angeles Box 655  Tujunga  CA 91042 818 352-4141 ********************************     From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Karen Watters Cole Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2005 2:25 PM To: futurework@fes.uwaterloo.ca Subject: [Futurework] can't win for losing Part 2   Bush faces Wall Street pressure on Global Warming The deadliest U.S. hurricane season in more than a century has some Wall Street investors sounding like members of the Sierra Club. Firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are telling U.S. clients for the first time that climate change poses financial risks. With damage estimates for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita as high as $200 billion, an increasing number of investors are joining public pension funds in urging action on global warming, which scientists say may be making storms more powerful. ``Definitely there will be more attention paid on Wall Street to natural disasters and global warming,'' said Michael Johnston, a New York-based investment strategist at Capital Group Cos., the third-largest U.S. mutual-fund firm, which manages more than $1 trillion. Katrina hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, followed three weeks later by Rita, which at its peak was the third-most-intense Atlantic hurricane ever. The devastation disrupted energy supplies, and insurers and economists say they worry about another big storm hitting this year. ``Katrina is going to be a big stimulus for Washington to act,'' said Morton Cohen, a hedge fund manager at Cleveland- based Clarion Group, which manages $200 million in assets, almost half of which are energy-related. ``It's pretty obvious we have to do something about building refineries in this country and diminishing our amount of coal-burning toxins.'' President George W. Bush has questioned the science behind climate change and rejected calls for a mandatory federal cap on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=INIY650D9L35#   Effect of greenhouse gases rising, gov’t study says. The effect of greenhouse gases on the Earth's atmosphere has increased 20 percent since 1990, a new government index says.  The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index was released Tuesday by the Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide accumulate in the atmosphere as a result of industrial and other processes. They can help trap solar heat, somewhat like a greenhouse, resulting in a gradual warming of the Earth's atmosphere. The Earth's average temperature increased about 1 degree Fahrenheit during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that continuing increases could have serious effects on crops, glaciers, the spread of disease, rising sea levels and other changes.  http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=8904   Interior Secretary says US will push search for energy http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/politics/28norton.html   Norton plans more development on public lands, not just ANWR and offshore will be needed. None of this will do anything to reduce the immediate or even short-range supply problems. Repealing protections in the Endangered Species Act will remove roadblocks to new drilling and Republicans have a bill moving through Congress to do that now. Soft-pedaled calls for consumer conservation will do little to reduce consumption at this late date, it’s simply to reduce threat of immediate shortages at the pump, which would worsen the political climate for the GOP, already weakened by a climate of incompetence and greed. It’s ironic that the CEOs of Ford and Toyota USA are calling on Bush to hold an energy summit, something he’s avoiding while trying to look engaged as a compassionate conservative post-Katrina, politics before policy, as usual.   Rita causes record damage to oil rigs: Rigs, which are movable and are used for exploration and development, were in short supply before hurricanes Katrina and Rita blew through the US Gulf in late August and September. High oil prices and the desperate search for new oil supplies needed to meet rampant demand from the US and China have made rigs difficult to find and expensive to hire. Rigs cost $90m-$550m to construct, depending on how sophisticated the structure and how deep the water in which it will drill. A rig ordered today is unlikely to be ready before 2008 or 2009, analysts said. As a sign of just how precious rigs are becoming to the market, Anadarko, the biggest US independent oil company, this week set a record by committing to a rig six years in advance; commitments in the past were made months ahead of time rather than years. Initial reports from companies are ominous. Global Santa Fe reported it could not find two of its rigs. Rowan Companies reported four rigs damaged, with two having moved, one losing its "legs" and the fourth presumed sunk. Noble has four rigs adrift, with two run aground one into a ChevronTexaco platform.   http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050927_29056_18214.html   The charges are that the oil industry has by its own choice not built new refineries, which tightened the market and drives up prices. They also don’t want to invest in new drilling when the geology doesn’t promise a good ROI, so it’s not really surprising that Exxon, Chevron, BP, etc are becoming investors in renewable energy, projected to grow handsomely. Labor and parts shortage for drilling are also a problem.   As natural gas prices rise, so do prices for everything made with chemicals High prices are a double whammy for the chemical industry. Natural gas is both its main fuel and its main raw material, the starting point for the basic chemicals from which the fibers and compounds in shirts, eyeglasses and even the wrappers for single-serve soups are derived. "Chemical companies have been under assault for several years," said Robert Koort, an analyst at Goldman Sachs who has an attractive rating on the chemical sector. Diane H. Gulyas, chief marketing officer of DuPont, said that, if anything, the hurricanes "acted as a wake-up call." "It made us all realize how shocking the underlying fundamentals of our business have become," she said. The industry has passed along costs, and it is likely to continue doing so for now. Since Katrina, almost every chemical company has announced price increases. The trickledown effect to retail shelves is inevitable - soda and water come in plastic bottles, computers use plastic housings, even organic greenmarkets pack fruits and vegetables in plastic bags. "Consumers can expect to pay more for everything, from medicines to auto parts to computers to shampoo," said Kevin Swift, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, a trade association.  But industry specialists worry that if high gas prices curb consumer spending, the days of passing along constant price increases may end.  http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/business/28chemical.html   It’s pretty certain that in addition to gauging the damage from ongoing scandals, the White House is paying much more attention to winter weather forecasts, hoping for a mild season and a miracle in Iraq. kwc

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