RE: [Futurework] can't win for losing Part 2

[Harry Pollard]

Karen,   Warming of the ocean since 1970 has been less than 1 degree F.   Ocean temperatures around Florida and the Gulf have been between 80 and 90 degrees F.   On that small general increase, they pin a GW connection – which warming doesn’t appear to be causing a lot of change around the world.   You’ll notice that Emanuel and others have found they can find “doubling of intensity” over the last 35 years of hurricane intensity. They start in 1970. In 1969 was one of the 3 category 5 hurricanes to hit us.   As Maxwell Smart might have said “Missed it by this much!”   Over 40 years the hurricane experts at the NOAA find different results.   “Table 6, which lists hurricanes by decades since 1851, shows that during the forty year period 1961 2000 both the number and intensity of landfalling U.S. hurricanes decreased sharply! Based on 1901 - 1960 statistics, the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes during the period 1961 - 2000 was 75 and 28, respectively. But, in fact, only 55 (or 74%) of the expected number of hurricanes struck the U.S. with only 20 major hurricanes or 71% of that expected number. Even the very active late 1990s showed below average landfall frequencies. It could be noted that of the most recent four decades, only the 70's and 80's were significantly below normal in terms of overall tropical cyclone activity.”   I have attached Table 6 to this post – use it as a reference for hurricane history.   Landfall is the issue. I, and most others, couldn’t care less if major hurricanes develop over the Atlantic or Pacific. The important consideration is how intense are they when they reach land.   Expect, as the scary propaganda increases, that they will be warning of intense ocean hurricanes that will veer away from the US – but will serve to frighten everybody into accepting Global Warming – that is, warming caused by us.   Warming in the world at the moment is opposite to the cooling in last mid-century. As I’ve said – it’s the weather.   These changes have been around for millennia. The almost abrupt change from cooling to warming that started about 1976 is of great interest to me.     Why did it happen?   Final point – if Kyoto was carried out to the letter by every nation – it would make no difference to “Global Warming”. The IPCC are tackling a problem without solution. They should pack their bags and go home, allowing real scientists to do non-political research peer-reviewed by external, independent, editors.   The Senate were right to turn down Kyoto by 95-0.   Oops! It was Bush who did it wasn’t it?   Harry     ******************************** Henry George School of Social Science of Los Angeles Box 655  Tujunga  CA 91042 818 352-4141 ********************************     From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Karen Watters Cole Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2005 5:53 PM To: futurework@fes.uwaterloo.ca Subject: RE: [Futurework] can't win for losing Part 2   Michael G. wrote: I suspect that the real area of concern is that there is no guarantee that what almost happened to Houston (and did happen to New Orleans) won't happen again in a month or next year or the year after that and the year after that... But no one can say that it seems.   It seems that what is not disputed is that the warmer ocean temperatures increased the intensity of the hurricanes. So far the argument is whether they are more frequent. Given Katrina and Rita were both 100-year storms arriving within 30 days of each other, and climatologists warn that another major storm may be brewing off west Africa to come ashore in October, that argument may be mute by Thanksgiving.   On that note, I think New Orleans will be rebuilt – once. If we continue to see more natural disasters linked to climate change, we will be looking at more serious and widespread long-term reevaluations.   The Great Game got much more intense after Katrina and Rita. Domestically, Congress will rush to fund nuclear plants and drilling, neither of which would relieve the capacity problem in the next 10 years. Smart money is on a Manhattan-style project to develop alternative fuels to supplement traditional resources and a national conservation plan, which saves much more and faster than anything else we could do.   If Congress breaks free of the fossil fuel lobby, we could see a renewed interest in rail. The airlines are going to be in further jeopardy. Regional economists and planners have more reasons than ever to review development plans that strengthen local economic networks, especially for food. “Food miles” are already becoming critical in economies of scale, as the consumer’s purchasing power declines. Wal Mart’s warning on upcoming earnings has more than a few worried.   If a diversified energy formula is not computed quickly, it won’t matter whether we have a short or longer recession, or even if the Iraqis achieve a ratified constitution and elect their first independent legislature, and avoid regional war. It will be guns vs butter very soon. Bush has lost the battle for hearts and minds in continuing his war in Iraq.    Americans don’t buy Bush’s Iraq war as a means for democracy. The war in Iraq has left Americans skeptical about the use of military force as a tool to spread democracy, according to a poll released on Thursday.  Seventy-two percent of those questioned said the conflict has made them feel worse about the use of military force "to bring about democracy" down the road, compared to only 20 percent who said it made them feel better about such a prospect, the survey found. It also found that nearly three of every four Americans believe overthrowing Iraq's government and trying to establish a democracy in its place was not a good enough reason to go to war there. The survey did not address the question of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  "Most Americans do not appear to have been persuaded by President George W. Bush's ... argument that promoting democracy is a critical means for fighting terrorism and making the world safer," said Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, a research group affiliated with the University of Maryland, which worked with the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. (source: Associated Press via http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050929/pl_nm/iraq_poll_dc)

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