Well, a putsch by Moqtada al-Sadr didn't take place yesterday as I was guessing at. I still believe, however, that this is what Bush now wants because this, surely, is the only way forward now for a possible united Iraq. Maybe Moqtada didn't get the message that the leak of the Stephen J. Hadley memo was probably meant to convey -- that Maliki (the third or fourth leader of various Iraq "governments") was unable to carry out the task and that a stronger leader was necessary.

Surprisingly, Bush has now felt it necessary to repudiate the findings of the Iraq Study Group (or at least the purported findings). To dismiss such a report, even before it is published, by a distinguished bi-partisan panel who have been studying and discussing the matter for most of the year, would be the height of discourtesy and the grossest stupidity on the face of it. We read:

<<<<
President Bush today proclaimed Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki "the right guy for Iraq," and said the two had agreed to speed the turnover of security responsibility from American to Iraqi forces. But Mr. Bush dismissed a reported decision by an independent bipartisan panel to call for a gradual withdrawal of troops. (New York Times)
>>>>

But perhaps it is not surprising. Perhaps what the Iraq Study Group actually want to happen is a new dictatorship in Iraq. Even if the leak of the Hadley memo didn't achieve its objective straightaway it ought to have some effect on Moqtada al-Sadr before too long. Now that what was expected in the Iraq Study Groups' report has been dismissed so ostentatiously then surely Moqtada al-Sadr ought to realise that Bush certainly does not believe that Prime Minister Maliki is the right man, nor can remain for much longer while the present Sunni-Shia terrorism goes on. In my view, Sadr has now recevied a double hint to to take over -- and act soon.

As already mentioned, I don't believe that Saudi Arabia will intervene in a military way to support Iraqi Sunnis. They'll express their anger, of course. That's to be expected. But I believe that the Chinese will be acting as peacemakers as, I believe, they've already been acting in the case of Iran and America. In so many words, all they need to say to the Saudis is: "Keep out of it. Continue building your security wall. We will help you develop your country so that your young men can be trained and have jobs and will not be so susceptible to Al Qaeda recruiters."

Keith Hudson



Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org> 

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