Arthur,
A few comments on what you have written:
At 11:37 26/02/2010 -0500, you wrote:
My view is a function of things that I believe-- note I can't 'prove
them' just believe them:
1. That western capitalist society has solved the production
problem.
By and large, yes.
2. That we have not solved the distribution problem.
By and large, no -- as regards consumer goods. Even the poorest now
possess, or has access to, goods that even royalty of less than a century
ago could only dream of. Not only have goods become increasingly cheap but
there's a second-hand market in almost everything. The real problem that's
now looming is the cost of food -- directly related to the cost of
nitrogenous fertilizer in turn directly related to the cost of fossil
fuels.. Already one-third of the world's population don't eat enough,
another third has an inadequate carbohydrate diet that's deficient in
protein, and only a third are able to afford an adequate diet.
3. That good jobs for the broad middle class are less to be found
these days than in the past and will be less so in the future.(because of IT
and globalisation)
Agreed. And they're becoming increasingly boring jobs due to automation and
computerization. But they'll still be a tranche of really interesting (and
relatively highly-paid) jobs, and they'll still be restricting entry to
them except to their own kind.
4. That effective demand has to be maintained if we are to avoid an
economic meltdown.
That's so under today's economic growth model. But our modern gianticism
has only been a product of finding such huge quantities of fossil fuel
resources. Without this fortuitous circumstance our population wouldn't
have been anywhere near what it is now, production then being limited to a
trappable proportion of available sunlight and not a kilowatt-hour more. If
we are to have an economic meltdown it will be due to energy shortages, not
lack of effective demand. The latter is only a byroduct and can disappear
fast if governments and upper classes allow the poor and uneducated to be
neglected. And they'll have no problems doing this if necessary, social
revolutions being motivated only by aspiring and well-fed classes, not
starving ones.
5. That money will be found (from a bit tax, a tobin tax, some other
form of turnover indirect tax) to provide a basic income, or to provide
spending for some other type of workfare activivities in the third sector.
In my view there's no chance of more money by any form of additional
taxation, no matter how imaginatively conceived. The poor and the
unemployed will be lucky to hang onto whatever welfare they're getting now.
The costs of basics (a good education for children adequate for modern
skills) are now so high that even those who are surviving will not allow
more dispersal of their discretionary income for the sake of simply keeping
others alive. The rich countries of this world only spend much less than 1%
on aid to the undeveloped world. Why would the rich (that is, the middle
and upper classes with adequate incomes) spend any more than they already
do on their own poor? The latter can be disregarded in exactly the same way
as the undeveloped world now is.
6. That governments will argue about debt this and deficit that but
when the crunch comes, new money will be found.
Maybe, but the only new money will be printed money and, if too much is
printed, most with only a daily or weekly income will be pushing
barrowloads of the stuff to buy a loaf of bread.
---
As suggested above, it is quite feasible to imagine a future society that's
very different indeed from the present one, so long as it doesn't
invalidate (or try to, as we are doing now) our deep genetic behaviours.
Our present politicians are still mainly composed of lawyers -- products of
a medieval, agricultural, religious age. Asking them to point the way
forward is like asking a car mechanic to repair a computer.
Keith
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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