I'm think that that is probably the wrong question... The question that "we" should be asking is how do we get into a position where can ask that question... I think the correct question sis "What are the preconditions/processes/strategies that allows us/the folks on spaceship earth to begin to think/talk/argue/discuss those issues... and how do we put those preconditions/processes/strategies in place... That may be the only question worth addressing at this moment in history. M From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur Cordell Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 3:23 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobslost duringthe recessionare notcoming back
Wish I had a better scenario. What's yours? From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of michael gurstein Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 5: the 47 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; [email protected] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost duringthe recessionare notcoming back Yes, I guess what I'm trying to point out is that a lot of the steady state argument is very very Western/middle class biased and doesn't hold that much water beyond SoCal and Aspen...which to my mind is very dangerous since it means that the folks who have been (self) tasked with thinking the big thoughts are in fact thinking their thoughts only in cartoon bubbles... M -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur Cordell Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 2:30 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION'; [email protected] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost duringthe recessionare notcoming back Wish I had a better scenario. If we go to a steady state we will need real global leadership. And it might just be that slowing down the gerbil wheel a bit might lead to a better outcome for all. We just don't know. What we are coming to realize is that speeding up the gerbil wheel is not likely to bring the outcomes promised or wished for. Think resource scarcities of all types. Think continuing destruction of local cultures, languages, etc. It's time to look at alternative paths. This too is the "real" world. Arthur From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of michael gurstein Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 4:49 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; [email protected] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost during the recessionare notcoming back Unfortunately Arthur that isn't really good enough in the real world... A steady state would probably only work if enough people were satisfied with their current situation such that they wouldn't aspire to improving it dramatically... And that wouldn't work 9in a democratic environment unless there was some sort of leveling off of living standards--not equalization but at least some "sharing of the pain"... the chorus of calls of "hypocrisy" leveled against climate activism coming from the Developed World being leveled by the Developing World is increasing and that's even without any significant involvement from the Developing World masses.... M -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur Cordell Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 12:29 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION'; [email protected] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost during the recessionare notcoming back If the developed world goes into a steady state then consumption levels out and demand for commodities also levels out. Consumer goods produced abroad begin to level out and demand for commodities to make those goods levels out. It will be argued that one outcome is that there will be disparities in the world. Well there are always disparities within nations, within cities, within communities and among nations. The magical thinking has been that Western consumption will somehow bring up the rest of the world as they produce the goods and services demanded by the West (and as they then buy our T-bills which then allows us to borrow and spend even more). No one knows the outcome but my hunch is that growing and consuming in the West is going to lead to an outcome where everyone loses. Heading toward a stable state might, just might lead to a leveling off in use of resources of all kinds and while there might not be a goods life for all there might just be a good life for all, albeit with some degree of disparities. Arthur From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of michael gurstein Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 11:04 AM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; [email protected] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost during the recession are notcoming back Arthur, I haven't read Daly for a very long time (and even then not that closely) so I'm not sure if this was covered... The real challenge to any future scenario are the LDC's... China, India and Brazil are, as we know, moving forward very quickly and incuding greater or lesser degrees of wide dispersal of the proceeds of "development"... There are any number of other countries/peoples waiting in the wings for similar develoopments once (if) they get their governance issues sorted out. (Good governance IMHO will take even the most resource poor country quite a long way in terms of "development") ANYmodel of the future has to take all of the above into consideration and what that means for a "stable/steady state" economy is that at the global level it has to incllude somre reasonable standard of living for the other 5.5 billlion or so... Question, is that feasible/commensurable with that model? If not, and I suspect that based on the resource availability assumptions tossed around in this part of the (virtual) world, it may not be, then your "(positive) image of the future" will need to include a "(postive) image" of how we get from here to there, which I suspect is rather more difficult to envisage than your first challenge. M -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur Cordell Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 7:15 AM To: [email protected]; 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost during the recession are notcoming back Agree. When we "hit the wall" the current economic model will change drastically. What is needed is a positive image of the future, even a future characterized by "the new realities". I favour some form of stable or steady state economy a la Daly; or a variant thereof. Arthur From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Steve Kurtz Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 9:42 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost during the recession are not coming back On 5/14/2010 9:26 AM, Arthur Cordell wrote: Increasingly people are needed in the economy as consumers, not producers. It is in this sense that the production problem has been solved. When throughput gets constrained by peak oil, peak fisheries, peak topsoil, peak aquifers, peak forests/watersheds...and events like the current (now 10X more than estimated) oil leak hasten toxicity in the habitat...needing greater consumption by more people will be the opposite of what is needed! Steve
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