At 17:29 21/08/2010 +0200, Chris wrote:
Keith wrote:
> Der Speigel carries long
> articles about Greece, Spain and Portugal quite often because public
> opinion in Germany is rising against the whole issue of the EMU and the EU
> itself. Unless Greece, Spain, Portugal start leaving the EMU fairly soon
> then you can be certain that Germany will instead.
The EU puppets who rule Germany will prevent that.
Chris
Maybe. There are certainly powerful politicians in Germany and bureaucrats
in the EU who will do their utmost to prevent Germany leaving. At present,
German exports are doing well and unemployment is reducing. But if the
dollar were to weaken significantly -- and the euro rises as a consequence
-- then the export situation, and employment, could change quite quickly
and mass opposition to Germany's membership -- slumbering recently rather
than changing substantively -- could erupt.
I think the fate of the EMU depends much more on what happens in America
rather than in Europe itself and I would bet on things becoming much more
serious over there in the coming months. I foresee deflation intensifying
rather than any positive effect occurring from Obama's recent "quantitative
easing by stealth" (a lot of mortgagees being saved from imminent
foreclosures). And I think the Republicans (soon to be amplified after the
Novemeber elections) won't allow Geithner and Bernanke to unleash
full-blooded money printing.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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