At 07:04 30/10/2010 +0800, Michael Gurstein wrote:
Keith is of course wrong both in the specifics and in the general...
The largest and fastest growing consumer good (both elite and mass) is the
"experience industry" including packaged mass travel at one end and
individual thrill seeking adventure travel at the other (bungee jumping).
Michael is of course wrong because mass consumption of experiential goods
requires plenty of discretionary time and money -- and there'll be little
of the latter for most in the post-prosperity years to come.
The market/demand for this is likely insatiable this side of impossibly
expensive transportation costs...
. . . as these costs will become from now onwards -- now that we have
probably seen the best of transportation innovations (light-weight
aircraft, freight containers). In any case -- once again as Fred Hirsch has
shown ("Social Limits to Growth") -- even the remotest and most beautiful
tourist sites in the world would become crowded -- and thus destroyed -- if
mass tourism grows much more than it has done already. Don't kid yourself
that the elite are going to share the best natural regions of the world
much beyond those that have been commercialized so far. They're already
being sequestered by the elite -- within governments or privately.
If nothing else China will drive this market both internationally and
internally.
No more than it has done hitherto and certainly not in the next 15/20 years
while the world recovers from its monetary chaos and while the Chinese
government (at risk of revolution) will be intent in trying to haul-up
another 800 million of the poorest people in the world to even modest
levels of urban living.
The lovely thing about the "experience industry" as compared to any of the
other "iconic goods" is that the demand for it can never be satisfied--once
you've climbed the tallest 5 peaks there are always another 10 waiting in
the wings, more Disneylands to visit, the Grand Canyon then the predator
icons in Zurich and Manhattan and even the anti-bit tax palaces in Silicon
Valley...
Once again, you ought to read Fred Hirsch's book. Do you think for one
instant that the rich and the elite of this world are going to allow
unlimited sharing of the nicest places? They have their own statuses to
consider -- to which end money is only a means.
We might have mass experientialism one day but only when world population
is a small fraction of what it is today.
Keith
(there, I did it too and raised you one Ed ;-)
M
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of pete
Sent: Saturday, October 30, 2010 5:35 AM
To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION
Subject: Re: [Futurework] Both schools are wrong
On Fri, 29 Oct 2010, Keith Hudson wrote:
> At 12:32 29/10/2010 +0200, Chris wrote:
> >Keith challenged:
> > > Find me a new consumer product that's highly desirable by the
> > > rich, very expensive -- say, equivalent to what the car was in the
> > > 1910s/20s -- but capable of repeated phases of mass production
> > > until it reaches down to everybody in due course.
> >
> >How about space tourism?
> >Mark Shuttleworth paid 20m, now it's getting cheaper...
>
> About as attractive for most as bungee-jumping I'd suggest (and that's
> free!).
>
> Keith
Where did you get that idea? It is both popular and lucrative. People
line up for the opportunity, as they do for sky diving, etc. They do
have one day a year at the operation on the gorge near Nanaimo where
they offer free jumping as a promotion, but only if you agree to jump
naked.
If space travel was a cheap as bungee jumping, the planet would be
rapidly emptied (assuming destinations which such a condition would allow to
be constructed).
-Pete
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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