This reads like a book I read years ago by Soeren Kierkegaard. He was screaming that Europe was too coldly analytical to have a good war to solve their problems. Except he was screaming in the middle of a war that had been going on for years.
REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 4:43 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION Subject: [Futurework] Euro under siege "Euro under siege as now Portugal hits the panic button" -- headlines in today's Daily Telegraph. With Ireland also, two countries are now in immediate peril and yesterday at least three pairs of premiers were screaming at each other. I can only think that the EMU is now the weakest link in the world currency fiasco. When the EMU breaks up -- as I'm sure it will (with maybe the EU to follow) -- there'll be more European animosity towards (an economically successful) Germany than there ever was when WWI and WWII started. Thankfully, there won't be warfare this time because no European country has a large army and re-arming simply couldn't be done within years no matter how much money is printed (besides, young males in all the countries would simply refuse to be conscripted as they were previously), but the wreckage could be considerable. I can see the PIIGSs (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) going to the wall and, probably, never recovering this side of 2100. I can't see much of a future for France and the UK either (neither having sufficient discipline to see adequate austerity plans through -- and to what end anyway if the rest of the world sets about competitive devaluations?). I can't see another G20 taking place. There were screaming matches at the last one, too. The currency situation is already too chaotic for that. If there's to be a solution then it will only take place in the same way as Bretton Woods I in 1944 took place (effectively, negotiations between two countries only, even though there were 43 other attenders). It was then America -- the big rising star -- and Britain -- the big declining star. It'll be the same again, even if 200+ countries attend Bretton Woods II. This time, the inner negotiating room will contain China and America only. Meanwhile, however much the currency chaos develops and however much various personnel from both countries might scream at each other from time to time, neither country can't afford to fall out with the other permanently. Each has far too much invested in the other. Keith Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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