Western Europe has always been fractured because of its geology (diversity
of cultures) and very high coastline/land ratio (receptivity to new ideas).
And that's why we are highly creative and the original supplier of the
cream of ideas and products to America throughout most of the latter's
existence. Until recently, that is, when the burden is now being shared by
Asian-born scientists. If I were an American I'd seriously begin to worry
whether America is going to hold itself together in the coming years.
KSH
At 20:06 22/11/2010 -0500, Ray wrote:
Good, we Americans dont need a united Europe to compete with. Youre
just fine broken up and deconstructed. There was too much potential for
you guys to become an answer to China and the Chinese model with better
living standards, more humane individuality and a sensible environmental
policy. Now you will go back to squabbling and the occasional war just
like you always have with the Swiss sitting in the middle armed to the
teeth and gloating. Enter Chris.
REH
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Monday, November 22, 2010 2:11 PM
To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION
Subject: [Futurework] The beginning of the end of the Euro
It looks to me as though the European Monetary Union (EMU) is at the
beginning of its death throes now. When the EU President, Herman Van
Rompuy, said last week that the European Union was in a "survival crisis"
even he was expecting the IMF team to have finished its inspection of
Ireland's accounts on Tuesday morning last as expected.
But it dragged on all through last week and over the week-end, and still
the details haven't emerged. Rumours have it, though, that the IMF and EU
teams haven't been able to force Ireland into giving up its highly
preferential 12.5% corporate tax rate (with which it has been able to
attract several large American corporations). They haven't been able to
for the simple political fact that Irish people are almost up in arms
about the whole mess that membership of the EU has led them into. The
opposition party will sweep into power early next year in Ireland's
General Election and might then decide -- even if the 12.5% rate is
retained -- that Ireland should default from its debts altogether, Latin
American style, and thus leave the EMU, with resignation from the EU
likely to follow .
Only this would give Ireland a sporting chance of re-establishing itself
as a going concern. Almost anything could happen then. Portugal, the next
on the chopping block, could follow suit and then likely to be followed by
Greece -- once again! -- which, despite its recent bail-out, is nowhere
near on target in meeting EMU objectives -- and then there's Spain and
Italy, also, both in irredeemable financial trouble. And then there's
Germany. It, too, could secede from the EMU.
Germany, with its superb engineering exports, would be well able to manage
on its own. There are only two issues which have held Germany on a knife
edge from seceding from the EMU already in the past year. One is that it
is still suffering from the guilt of WWII, particularly of the Holocaust,
and feels it must act towards Europe in a super-responsible way in order
to expatiate itself. The other is that, with a weak Euro currency, its
exports are prospering. With a new Deutschesmark, bond investors would
soon mark it up and thus knock Germany's exports back somewhat -- at least
initially. It wouldn't be able to maintain its present low level of
unemployment (relative to the rest of the Western world).
It's in the lap of the Gods -- that is, bond investors -- as to whether
the EMU and the EU survives or not in the next few months. Politicians
don't have to be brave to try and keep the show alive, but bond investors,
who have to put their money where their mouth is, would certainly have to
be. And if the IMF succeeds in bailing-out the EMU for the time being
(that is, putting on a convincing show with large emotive financial
numbers), just where is its money coming from? Because many of its main
funding nations are themselves in debt, then any "money" from the IMF can
only be yet another form of money printing.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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