Good move! :>))
REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Harry Pollard Sent: Monday, May 23, 2011 3:52 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many With New College Degree Find the Job Market Humbling Aldous Huxley in the preface to his Brave New World Revisited (p. viii), wrote, "If I were now to rewrite the book, I would offer a third alternative ... the possibility of sanity. Economics would be decentralist and Henry Georgian." Harry ****************************** Henry George School of Los Angeles Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 (818) 352-4141 ****************************** From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Harrell Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:30 AM To: 'Keith Hudson'; 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many With New College Degree Find the Job Market Humbling Brave new world. REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:01 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many With New College Degree Find the Job Market Humbling But this is also happening in a growth economy, never mind the sour ones in most advanced countries. It's already the case in China that many (perhaps most) of their thousands of graduates -- even in engineering -- are not finding jobs that matches their credentials or their talents. The irony is that, just as skill standards are rising in today's high-tech economy, the proportion of those necessary to produce the tradable goods is still contracting. It's been doing so ever since the medieval days when something like 70% of the population were growing food and supporting the 20% remainder (the craftsmen, the church, the aristocracy). At mid-industrial revolution (19th century) the value-adding part (innovators plus factory workers) had shrunk to about 50% -- with a new middle class and larger armies and governments to support. Today the innovators and producers of tradable goods and services is probably around 30% and, probably, still shrinking. Obviously, this trend can't go on forever. However, the present 70% of non-value adders in the advanced countries with increasingly dumbed-down jobs and with declining real, rather than nominal, wages (as of the last three decades) then they are supplying their own solution by reducing the number of their children. If, in the advanced countries, this 70% also persuade their government to restrict immigration from the poor of the world, then their populations will decline (as they are already close to doing) and the essential value-adders of the economy will once again rise from whatever level they will have stabilized at during the next 30 years or so. As for the value-adders they'll have no problem in having enough children to replenish their numbers if they want to. Even if the ladies don't want the bother of personally producing the requisite numbers of children -- namely about 2.1 each -- then they will certainly be able to pay enough surrogate mothers. Also in vitro gestation might well be possible within the next 30 years.# Keith At 14:40 19/05/2011, you wrote: >From NY Times May 18, 2011 Now evidence is emerging that the damage wrought by the sour economy is more widespread than just a few careers led astray or postponed. Even for college graduates the people who were most protected from the slings and arrows of recession <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/r/recession_an d_depression/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier> <https://www.readability.com/articles/xnuuaez9?legacy_bookmarklet=1#rdb-foot note-1> 1 the outlook is rather bleak. Employment rates for new college graduates have fallen sharply in the last two years, as have starting salaries for those who can find work. Whats more, only half of the jobs landed by these new graduates even require a college degree, reviving debates about whether higher education is worth it after all. I have friends with the same degree as me, from a worse school, but because of who they knew or when they happened to graduate, theyre in much better jobs, said Kyle Bishop, 23, a 2009 graduate of the University of Pittsburgh who has spent the last two years waiting tables, delivering beer, working at a bookstore and entering data. Its more about luck than anything else. The median starting salary for students graduating from four-year colleges in 2009 and 2010 was $27,000, down from $30,000 for those who entered the work force in 2006 to 2008, according to a study released <http://www.heldrich.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/content/Work_Trends_May _2011.pdf> <https://www.readability.com/articles/xnuuaez9?legacy_bookmarklet=1#rdb-foot note-2> 2 on Wednesday by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. That is a decline of 10 percent, even before taking inflation into account. Of course, these are the lucky ones the graduates who found a job. Among the members of the class of 2010, just 56 percent had held at least one job by this spring, when the survey was conducted. That compares with 90 percent of graduates from the classes of 2006 and 2007. (Some have gone for further education or opted out of the labor force, while many are still pounding the pavement.) Even these figures understate the damage done to these workers careers. Many have taken jobs that do not make use of their skills; about only half of recent college graduates said that their first job required a college degree. The choice of major is quite important. Certain majors had better luck finding a job that required a college degree, according to an analysis by Andrew M. Sum, an economist at Northeastern University, of 2009 Labor Department data for college graduates under 25. Young graduates who majored in education and teaching or engineering were most likely to find a job requiring a college degree, while area studies majors those who majored in Latin American studies, for example and humanities majors were least likely to do so. Among all recent education graduates, 71.1 percent were in jobs that required a college degree; of all area studies majors, the share was 44.7 percent. An analysis by The New York Times of Labor Department data about college graduates aged 25 to 34 found that the number of these workers employed in food service, restaurants and bars had risen 17 percent in 2009 from 2008, though the sample size was small. There were similar or bigger employment increases at gas stations and fuel dealers, food and alcohol stores, and taxi and limousine services. This may be a waste of a college degree, but it also displaces the less-educated workers who would normally take these jobs. The less schooling you had, the more likely you were to get thrown out of the labor market altogether, said Mr. Sum, noting that unemployment rates for high school graduates and dropouts are always much higher than those for college graduates. There is complete displacement all the way down. Meanwhile, college graduates are having trouble paying off student loan <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/s/student_loan s/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier> <https://www.readability.com/articles/xnuuaez9?legacy_bookmarklet=1#rdb-foot note-3> 3 debt, which is at a median of $20,000 for graduates of classes 2006 to 2010. Mr. Bishop, the Pittsburgh graduate, said he is terrified of the effects his starter jobs might have on his ultimate career, which he hopes to be in publishing or writing. It looks bad to have all these short-term jobs on your résumé, but you do have to pay the bills, he said, adding that right now his student loan debt was over $70,000. Many graduates will probably take on more student debt. More than 60 percent of those who graduated in the last five years say they will need more formal education to be successful. I knew there werent going to be many job prospects for me until I got my Ph.D., said Travis Patterson, 23, a 2010 graduate of California State University, Fullerton. He is working as an administrative assistant for a property management company and studying psychology in graduate school. While it may not have anything to do with his degree, it helps pay my rent and tuition, and thats what matters. Going back to school does offer the possibility of joining the labor force when the economy is better. Unemployment rates are also generally lower for people with advanced schooling. Those who do not go back to school may be on a lower-paying trajectory for years. They start at a lower salary, and they may begin their careers with employers that pay less on average or have less room for growth. Their salary history follows them wherever they go, said Carl Van Horn, a labor economist at Rutgers. Its like a parrot on your shoulder, traveling with you everywhere, constantly telling you No, you cant make that much money. And while young people who have weathered a tough job market may shy from risks during their careers, the best way to nullify an unlucky graduation date is to change jobs when you can, says Till von Wachter, an economist at Columbia. If you dont move within five years of graduating, for some reason you get stuck where you are. Thats just an empirical finding, Mr. von Wachter said. By your late 20s, youre often married, and have a family and have a house. You stop the active pattern of moving jobs. _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/05/
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