All effective decisions (and discoveries and innovations) are made
either by individuals or by small groups of no more than about eight
or nine experienced members. This has been so throughout all history.
The only difference between older times and now -- and it is a big
one -- is that today there can be many more cliques operating
simultaneously within an 'advanced culture' than in simpler
governances of yesteryear. Sometimes they are contending vigorously
against one another, sometimes privately, sometimes publicly.
Sometimes some of them are in collusion with others at particular
times for particular purposes. Sometimes their differences are low
key. Sometimes the cliques quietly get on with their own activity,
keeping on good terms with the others. Sometimes a minority of the
most outstanding members of some groups may actually transfer their
membership or even be members of two or more groups simultaneously --
the so-called 'revolving door' syndrome.
However, unlike the majority of a culture's population, the members
of all these elite groups are all well-educated, well-informed, and
pay a great deal of attention to one another's activities, each
usually respecting the intelligence, specializations and potential
power of the other. Furthermore, because they all tend to send their
offspring to the same minority of very good schools and elite
universities, their same offspring tend to intersocialize and
intermarry during those crucial years when young people are setting
their pitch towards their future adult statuses and careers. It is
during this hugely important life-period -- when the frontal lobes of
their brains are growing many more neurons, and new networks are
developing -- that young people may switch from the careers of their
parents (or those that were expected of them) into others -- or,
indeed, into quite new ones that hadn't been thought of before. But
no matter. Because of the mutual esteem that their parents' groups
have for some or many others, young would-be careerists can usually
be introduced to suitable temporary or permanent patrons who will be
able to give them help or early opportunities.
That's the way of the world, whether in communist China (so called)
or democratic America (so called) or several other countries that are
some significant way along the industrial revolution path of the last
300 years or so. The really important decisions are taken by cliques
-- so long as they are not totally vetoed by the power of others. Two
more tendencies of these groups these days are that: (a) because of
their specialized nature, groups are now tending to associate more
with like-minded groups in other countries and cultures rather than
exclusively within their own, and (b) because the modern world is
becoming even more specialized, then we will continue to see more
groups taking shape as necessary decision-making entities.
Of course, these groups don't operate within hermetic boundaries. At
present, they all depend on the wider population of their cultures
for their taxes, or their salaries, or their profits, or their perks
or their credibility. The more sensible of these groups make sure of
keeping their public relations in good repair and also that their
activities don't impact too forcibly on the activities of other elite
groups. Occasionally, however, some make bad mistakes. The present
controversy attending the small group around Rupert Murdoch is a good
example. Another likely group that faces being slapped down comprises
the small number of individuals who head investment banks such as
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan whose present purpose is to maintain as
much financial volatility and instability as possible in order to
benefit therefrom. The result of the 2008/9 episode gave them a
slight tap on the wrist. When the double dip finally arrives then
it's likely that their power will be much more strongly forced by
other groups into more responsibility.
But just as the modern world is specializing more and more, the
indigenous populations of all advanced countries are getting close to
precipitous decline. Average family sizes are falling much lower than
replacement, mainly because more and more parents can't afford more
than one child. It is noticeable, however, that although the
political groups of various nations draw attention to the growing
numbers and health costs of longer-living old people, they dare not
mention what will happen when the latter finally start to die in
significant numbers in about 20 to 30 years' time. Without large
populations where will taxes and economic growth and (most
importantly of all) profits come from then?
Well, they'll come from where they've always come from. Increasing
efficiency of production. More particularly, increasing energy
efficiency of production. Whereas the profits of neolithic tribes and
empires used to come from the energy of slaves and then from feudal
peasants and then, more recently, from regiments of workers in
factories, production of goods is becoming increasingly automated.
And this is also applying to a great deal of personal services.
In that case, so long as specialized groups still remain, personally
supervising an increasingly automated world, then super-large
populations will not be necessary for advanced civilizations in the
future. So long as the elite groups can recruit enough young people
from the wider population as their apprentices and successors -- or
can afford to breed sufficient numbers on their own (or use the
latest genetic technology to avoid the laborious part of it) -- then
there's no reason why an insufficiently educated majority of the
population should exist at all in the longer term future.
A new much reduced world population with a new equilibrium between
itself and the millions of other fascinating species of flora and
fauna on the planet will be established. Unless we are somehow able
to negate our genetically-imposed curiosity and our equally
genetically-imposed propensity to work best in small specialized
groups, then it's difficult to envisage any other future, despite the
upheavals that will undoubtedly take place.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/07/
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