I second Harry on that.
REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Harry Pollard Sent: Friday, July 08, 2011 11:21 AM To: 'Keith Hudson'; 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] An inevitable future Absolutely first-class, Keith. You are pretty close-mouthed about your health, but I hope you are handling it well. All good wishes! Harry ****************************** Henry George School of Los Angeles Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 (818) 352-4141 ****************************** From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Friday, July 08, 2011 2:34 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION Subject: [Futurework] An inevitable future All effective decisions (and discoveries and innovations) are made either by individuals or by small groups of no more than about eight or nine experienced members. This has been so throughout all history. The only difference between older times and now -- and it is a big one -- is that today there can be many more cliques operating simultaneously within an 'advanced culture' than in simpler governances of yesteryear. Sometimes they are contending vigorously against one another, sometimes privately, sometimes publicly. Sometimes some of them are in collusion with others at particular times for particular purposes. Sometimes their differences are low key. Sometimes the cliques quietly get on with their own activity, keeping on good terms with the others. Sometimes a minority of the most outstanding members of some groups may actually transfer their membership or even be members of two or more groups simultaneously -- the so-called 'revolving door' syndrome. However, unlike the majority of a culture's population, the members of all these elite groups are all well-educated, well-informed, and pay a great deal of attention to one another's activities, each usually respecting the intelligence, specializations and potential power of the other. Furthermore, because they all tend to send their offspring to the same minority of very good schools and elite universities, their same offspring tend to intersocialize and intermarry during those crucial years when young people are setting their pitch towards their future adult statuses and careers. It is during this hugely important life-period -- when the frontal lobes of their brains are growing many more neurons, and new networks are developing -- that young people may switch from the careers of their parents (or those that were expected of them) into others -- or, indeed, into quite new ones that hadn't been thought of before. But no matter. Because of the mutual esteem that their parents' groups have for some or many others, young would-be careerists can usually be introduced to suitable temporary or permanent patrons who will be able to give them help or early opportunities. That's the way of the world, whether in communist China (so called) or democratic America (so called) or several other countries that are some significant way along the industrial revolution path of the last 300 years or so. The really important decisions are taken by cliques -- so long as they are not totally vetoed by the power of others. Two more tendencies of these groups these days are that: (a) because of their specialized nature, groups are now tending to associate more with like-minded groups in other countries and cultures rather than exclusively within their own, and (b) because the modern world is becoming even more specialized, then we will continue to see more groups taking shape as necessary decision-making entities. Of course, these groups don't operate within hermetic boundaries. At present, they all depend on the wider population of their cultures for their taxes, or their salaries, or their profits, or their perks or their credibility. The more sensible of these groups make sure of keeping their public relations in good repair and also that their activities don't impact too forcibly on the activities of other elite groups. Occasionally, however, some make bad mistakes. The present controversy attending the small group around Rupert Murdoch is a good example. Another likely group that faces being slapped down comprises the small number of individuals who head investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan whose present purpose is to maintain as much financial volatility and instability as possible in order to benefit therefrom. The result of the 2008/9 episode gave them a slight tap on the wrist. When the double dip finally arrives then it's likely that their power will be much more strongly forced by other groups into more responsibility. But just as the modern world is specializing more and more, the indigenous populations of all advanced countries are getting close to precipitous decline. Average family sizes are falling much lower than replacement, mainly because more and more parents can't afford more than one child. It is noticeable, however, that although the political groups of various nations draw attention to the growing numbers and health costs of longer-living old people, they dare not mention what will happen when the latter finally start to die in significant numbers in about 20 to 30 years' time. Without large populations where will taxes and economic growth and (most importantly of all) profits come from then? Well, they'll come from where they've always come from. Increasing efficiency of production. More particularly, increasing energy efficiency of production. Whereas the profits of neolithic tribes and empires used to come from the energy of slaves and then from feudal peasants and then, more recently, from regiments of workers in factories, production of goods is becoming increasingly automated. And this is also applying to a great deal of personal services. In that case, so long as specialized groups still remain, personally supervising an increasingly automated world, then super-large populations will not be necessary for advanced civilizations in the future. So long as the elite groups can recruit enough young people from the wider population as their apprentices and successors -- or can afford to breed sufficient numbers on their own (or use the latest genetic technology to avoid the laborious part of it) -- then there's no reason why an insufficiently educated majority of the population should exist at all in the longer term future. A new much reduced world population with a new equilibrium between itself and the millions of other fascinating species of flora and fauna on the planet will be established. Unless we are somehow able to negate our genetically-imposed curiosity and our equally genetically-imposed propensity to work best in small specialized groups, then it's difficult to envisage any other future, despite the upheavals that will undoubtedly take place. Keith Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/07/
_______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
