Contrary to most projections I think we're probably close to maximum
world population already -- maybe still rising for another 15-20
years, but scarcely longer than that.
As I see it, we're already running into a fundamental limit to food
production due to freshwater shortages. No doubt gains will be made
by the agriculturalisation of large tracts of land in Africa that are
now being bought by China and also Western and Middle Eastern
investment funds, but the additional carbohydrate will be
preferentially sold for livestock feed in order to upgrade the diets
of the millions of newly rising Chinese, Brazilians, etc. The
improved diet of one new middle-class person effectively deprives the
(almost total) carbohydrate diet of at least three or four others.
Meanwhile populations in the advanced countries are declining fast
due to the TFR (total fertility rate) being already less than
replacement. Whether this will be compensated for by immigration from
Africa, etc, is a moot point. Resistance to immigration is becoming
fiercer from year to year. But even if immigrants replace the
die-offs in the advanced countries they'll also adjust to
less-than-replacement family sizes within two generations.
I don't donate to appeals from the large charities such as the
present big ones which are active in Somalia for two reasons, despite
the poignant scenes we see on television: (a) it encourages
"refugee-itis" from huge areas around a newly-erected camp (or even a
rumour that there might be one), even attracting many of those who
were just about surviving. This empties the landscape more
effectively than drought and actually encourages corrupt politicians
to sell/lease land to the investment funds; (b) food that's bought by
the charities for the refugee camps is actually depriving food from
equivalent numbers of people elsewhere.
Keith
At 01:06 30/07/2011, you wrote:
<http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/07/27/world.population.growth/index.html>http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/07/27/world.population.growth/index.html
Earth to hit 7 billion mark this year, straining developing regions
By the CNN Wire Staff
July 28, 2011 9:28 p.m. EDT
The world population hit 6 billion people in 1999 and is set to
The world population hit 6 billion people in 1999 and is set to
reach 7 billion this year.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* The "demographic center of gravity" is shifting to
less-developed regions
* Growth has been dramatic: It was just in 1800 that the world
held 1 billion people
* The developing regions will face big difficulties with food,
water, housing and energy
(CNN) -- Earth will become home to 7 billion people later this year,
and most of the planet's growth will affect the developing countries
the most, straining those regions' limited resources, a Harvard
University professor said Thursday.
The world's growth has been dramatic: It was just in 1999 that the
global population reached 6 billion. United Nations projections call
for the population to reach 10.1 billion in 2100, according to David
Bloom, a professor of economics and demography at the Harvard School
of Public Health, in an article published in the July 29 issue of Science.
By 2050, about 2.3 billion more people will be added, nearly as many
as the total living on the globe as recently as 1950, Bloom said.
Humanity grew slowly through most of history, taking until 1800 for
the population to hit 1 billion.
In the past half-century, the population grew from 3 billion to
about 7 billion.
Forecasts call for the world's "demographic center of gravity" to
shift from more-developed to less-developed regions, Bloom wrote in
his article, according to a Harvard news release.
This means the developing world will face hardships in providing
food, water, housing and energy to their growing populations, with
repercussions for health, security and economic growth.
The demographic picture is indeed complex, and poses some formidable
challenges.
--David Bloom, professor of economics and demography, Harvard School
of Public Health
"The demographic picture is indeed complex, and poses some
formidable challenges," Bloom said.
"Those challenges are not insurmountable, but we cannot deal with
them by sticking our heads in the sand. We have to tackle some tough
issues ranging from the unmet need for contraception among hundreds
of millions of women and the huge knowledge-action gaps we see in
the area of child survival, to the reform of retirement policy and
the development of global immigration policy. It's just plain
irresponsible to sit by idly while humankind experiences full force
the perils of demographic change," Bloom said.
In the next 40 years, virtually all (97%) of the world's 2.3 billion
projected increase will be in the underdeveloped regions, with
nearly half (49%) in Africa.
Meanwhile, the populations of more developed countries will remain
flat. As those peoples age, however, there will be fewer working-age
adults to support retirees living on social pensions, Bloom said.
"Although the issues immediately confronting developing countries
are different from those facing the rich countries, in a globalized
world demographic challenges anywhere are demographic challenges
everywhere," Bloom wrote.
In 2011, about 135 million people will be born and 57 million will
die -- a net increase of 78 million.
But uncertainly exists about the global projections, Bloom wrote.
Depending on whether the number of births per woman continues to
decline, population predictions for 2050 span from 8.1 billion to
10.6 billion, and the 2100 projections vary from 6.2 billion to 15.8
billion, Bloom said.
CNN's Michael Martinez contributed to this report.
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/07/
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