Keith, you make some very good points in your posting. And, I find
myself in agreement with you in most respects. In developed countries,
I think you've already mentioned that birth rates are increasing among
the very wealthy and simultaneously decreasing among the middle and
lower classes. And you're right in saying that we've started hitting
limits in terms of the world's ability to produce food, water, other
necessities of life for the vast majority of people. You may enjoy a
brief article at http://www.alternet.org/story/151837/%24230%2C000_for_a_guard_dog%3A_why_the_wealthy_are_afraid_of_violence_from_below?page=1
that talks about the wealthys' increasing security concerns. I don't
agree with everything the author is saying, but it is certainly food
for thought!
Cheers.
Barry
On Jul 30, 2011, at 7:08 AM, Keith Hudson wrote:
Contrary to most projections I think we're probably close to maximum
world population already -- maybe still rising for another 15-20
years, but scarcely longer than that.
As I see it, we're already running into a fundamental limit to food
production due to freshwater shortages. No doubt gains will be made
by the agriculturalisation of large tracts of land in Africa that
are now being bought by China and also Western and Middle Eastern
investment funds, but the additional carbohydrate will be
preferentially sold for livestock feed in order to upgrade the diets
of the millions of newly rising Chinese, Brazilians, etc. The
improved diet of one new middle-class person effectively deprives
the (almost total) carbohydrate diet of at least three or four
others. Meanwhile populations in the advanced countries are
declining fast due to the TFR (total fertility rate) being already
less than replacement. Whether this will be compensated for by
immigration from Africa, etc, is a moot point. Resistance to
immigration is becoming fiercer from year to year. But even if
immigrants replace the die-offs in the advanced countries they'll
also adjust to less-than-replacement family sizes within two
generations.
I don't donate to appeals from the large charities such as the
present big ones which are active in Somalia for two reasons,
despite the poignant scenes we see on television: (a) it encourages
"refugee-itis" from huge areas around a newly-erected camp (or even
a rumour that there might be one), even attracting many of those who
were just about surviving. This empties the landscape more
effectively than drought and actually encourages corrupt politicians
to sell/lease land to the investment funds; (b) food that's bought
by the charities for the refugee camps is actually depriving food
from equivalent numbers of people elsewhere.
Keith
At 01:06 30/07/2011, you wrote:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/07/27/world.population.growth/index.html
Earth to hit 7 billion mark this year, straining developing regions
By the CNN Wire Staff
July 28, 2011 9:28 p.m. EDT
The world population hit 6 billion people in 1999 and is set to
reach 7 billion this year.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
The "demographic center of gravity" is shifting to less-developed
regions
Growth has been dramatic: It was just in 1800 that the world held 1
billion people
The developing regions will face big difficulties with food, water,
housing and energy
(CNN) -- Earth will become home to 7 billion people later this
year, and most of the planet's growth will affect the developing
countries the most, straining those regions' limited resources, a
Harvard University professor said Thursday.
The world's growth has been dramatic: It was just in 1999 that the
global population reached 6 billion. United Nations projections
call for the population to reach 10.1 billion in 2100, according to
David Bloom, a professor of economics and demography at the Harvard
School of Public Health, in an article published in the July 29
issue of Science.
By 2050, about 2.3 billion more people will be added, nearly as
many as the total living on the globe as recently as 1950, Bloom
said. Humanity grew slowly through most of history, taking until
1800 for the population to hit 1 billion.
In the past half-century, the population grew from 3 billion to
about 7 billion.
Forecasts call for the world's "demographic center of gravity" to
shift from more-developed to less-developed regions, Bloom wrote in
his article, according to a Harvard news release.
This means the developing world will face hardships in providing
food, water, housing and energy to their growing populations, with
repercussions for health, security and economic growth.
The demographic picture is indeed complex, and poses some
formidable challenges.
--David Bloom, professor of economics and demography, Harvard
School of Public Health
"The demographic picture is indeed complex, and poses some
formidable challenges," Bloom said.
"Those challenges are not insurmountable, but we cannot deal with
them by sticking our heads in the sand. We have to tackle some
tough issues ranging from the unmet need for contraception among
hundreds of millions of women and the huge knowledge-action gaps we
see in the area of child survival, to the reform of retirement
policy and the development of global immigration policy. It's just
plain irresponsible to sit by idly while humankind experiences full
force the perils of demographic change," Bloom said.
In the next 40 years, virtually all (97%) of the world's 2.3
billion projected increase will be in the underdeveloped regions,
with nearly half (49%) in Africa.
Meanwhile, the populations of more developed countries will remain
flat. As those peoples age, however, there will be fewer working-
age adults to support retirees living on social pensions, Bloom said.
"Although the issues immediately confronting developing countries
are different from those facing the rich countries, in a globalized
world demographic challenges anywhere are demographic challenges
everywhere," Bloom wrote.
In 2011, about 135 million people will be born and 57 million will
die -- a net increase of 78 million.
But uncertainly exists about the global projections, Bloom wrote.
Depending on whether the number of births per woman continues to
decline, population predictions for 2050 span from 8.1 billion to
10.6 billion, and the 2100 projections vary from 6.2 billion to
15.8 billion, Bloom said.
CNN's Michael Martinez contributed to this report.
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/07/
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