Ed,
At 22:59 08/08/2011, you wrote:
Keith, sorry I didn't get back to you
sooner. I've spent the day leaping from one
thing to another, much like the global
economy. On reading your message about the only
thing I have to say is that we are in agreement
-- not complete, but pretty close.
And I am sure that both of us would agree that
the collapsing stock market in Asia, America and
Europe is an indication that the investment banks
and lack of adequate governmental supervision
have now taken us very close to an economic
condition that, if anything, could tip into
something far worse than that of the 1930s.
Keith
Regards,
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: <mailto:[email protected]>Keith Hudson
To:
<mailto:[email protected]>RE-DESIGNING
WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION ; <mailto:[email protected]>Ed Weick
Sent: Monday, August 08, 2011 10:08 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] Capitalism in crisis:
80 years ago, a banking collapse devastated
Europe, triggering war | Mail Online
Ed,
Well, I'm glad you agree with me that it's not
capitalism itself that's in crisis. It's those
who have effective (almost monopolistic) charge
of it at the present time which are in crisis.
Yes, you're right about all the other factors.
And you're quite right about the fact that much
of it takes place out of sight. Derivatives are
a wonderful example of this. Even now, scarcely
anybody outside teams of traders and their maths
helpers in the investment banks understand what
they are, even though, at rock bottom, they are
insurance policies no different in essence from
what many farmers do in order to establish
prices for their future crops or what we do when
we insure our homes against fire. But with
modern derivatives (all brand new since about
the mid-1990s when they were initially invented
by JPMorganChase) most of them have become
policies based on other policies -- derivatives
of derivatives -- instead of being based
directly on the goods themselves. Whereas before
the mid-1990s the total amount of derivatives
was about the same as world GDP, by 2008 they
had become ten times the value of world GDP. All
derivatives can be valued so they all acted like
money. So we had this great mass of pseudo money
being juggled in the air between the investment
banks and then finally landing as debt in the
punters' laps -- the punters being governments,
the ordinary commercial banks and, in turn, us.
But there are two more important factors which I
think should be added to the list. One is the
steady encroachment of automation. This is
already having huge effects in the bifurcation
of jobs skills. The other is that in the
advanced countries we are all becoming locked
into a particular way of life in which there is
scarcely any opportunity for new iconic consumer
goods and services. We had many of these all the
way through the past 300 years.
Keith
At 14:12 08/08/2011, you wrote:
Keith, I don't think you give enough credit
where credit is due. Several things in
combination are causing today's
crisis. Globalization, technology and the
movement of jobs to the "developing world" is
one such thing. The increasing economic
dominance of the FIRE sector(finance, insurance
and real estate) in advanced states, plus the
fact that much of what it does takes place out
of sight, is another. The growing gap between
rich and poor and the increasing saleability of
politicians is yet another. And most recently,
the trumping of democracy by ideology (the Tea
Party, for example) appears to have become a very important factor.
Poor old hunters/gatherers have nothing to do
with it. What I found in my work with people
who still hunt and gather in northern Canada is
that they are highly cooperative. If one
person invented a better method of hunting or gathering, everyone shared in it.
And it may not be capitalism that's in crisis,
but governments and nation states certainly are.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: <mailto:[email protected]>Keith Hudson
To:
<mailto:[email protected]>RE-DESIGNING
WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION ;
<mailto:[email protected]>Robert Stennett
Sent: Monday, August 08, 2011 2:49 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] Capitalism in crisis:
80 years ago, a banking collapse devastated
Europe, triggering war | Mail Online
Barry,
Capitalism is not in crisis. So long as man
retains his curiosity streak and wants to make
and do new things then, to bring them off, he
has to devote time, effort and (these days)
money beforehand. The first hunter-gatherer who
investigated his hunting weapon -- a crude
piece of stone -- and discovered that, with
skill, it could be fractured into sharp edges
and points was the first capitalist. The time
and effort spent was the first investment --
the first capital -- before money was invented.
What's in crisis today is governmental and
banker-led capitalism. In previous times there
has been military-dominated capitalism, as also
religiously-led as also industrialism-led. Each
has the effect at their zenith of exploiting
the masses. But then they inevitably go too far
and lose their 'mandate from heaven' as the Chinese put it.
Today's crisis has been caused by (a)
governmental printing of money way beyond
normal productivity; (b) banks' inventions of
all sorts of credit schemes which have vastly
enhanced the existing money supply. In fact,
governments and banks in the advanced countries
are synergistic. It's revolving doors for the
chief players. Senior politicians hardly fail
to become rich when retired; senior bankers
hardly fail in being able to influence legislation.
If it's of any consolation there are clear
signs that both banks and governments have
bitten off far more than they can chew. Having
grown from something like 5% of GDP to
something like 15% in the last 100 years, banks
are now contracting, both in personnel and
schemes. Having grown from something like 10%
of GDP to something approaching 50% (in some of
the most advanced countries) in the last 100
years, governments are already contracting,
both in personnel and scope. This hasn't reached America yet but it will do.
In this increasingly specialist world new power
groups will arise in due course as the whole
pack of cards is reshuffled. Don't ask me what
the next specific power centre(s) will be. For
example, it could be education or medicine (and
perhaps one particular specialization within
this such as neuroscience for happiness
purposes or genetics for breeding purposes).
Both education and medicine already have the
appearance of being much larger economic growth
sectors in the coming years. Both of them have
the potential of gaining power over the
personal lives of politicians, bankers and
their children. Or it could be something quite
unexpected which might carry great economic,
and thus political, power with it, such as
quantum computing or particle physics perhaps.
Unless you happen to think that mankind is
about to fall into chaos or oblivion or both,
then capitalism will survive. The real point is -- in whose hands?
Keith
At 23:56 07/08/2011, you wrote:
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2022993/Capitalism-crisis-80-years-ago-banking-collapse-devastated-Europe-triggering-war.html>http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2022993/Capitalism-crisis-80-years-ago-banking-collapse-devastated-Europe-triggering-war.html
I think the following quote summarizes much of
my current thinking about economics.
Barry
"At bottom, capitalism is as much a moral
enterprise as it is an economic one. If those
lucky enough to become successful ignore the
virtues of thrift, self-discipline and
sobriety, as well as the moral imperative to
look after the weak, then capitalism
degenerates into cronyism and self-interest."
Article to follow....
Capitalism in crisis, a warning from history:
Eighty years ago, a banking collapse
devastated Europe, triggering war. Today,
faith in the free markets is faltering again
Last updated at 6:03 PM on 6th August 2011
Exactly 80 years ago, international capitalism
stood on the verge of meltdown.
The collapse of the banking system in the
summer of 1931 sent shockwaves through Europe,
bringing governments to their knees and thousands out onto the streets.
In the United States, an increasingly careworn
president and his congressional critics fought
a bitter battle over government spending and tax rises.
The collapse of the banking system in the summer of 1931 brough
The collapse of the banking system in the
summer of 1931 brought governments to their
knees and thousands out onto the streets (Pictured: the Jarrow March)
And in Britain, with the Labour government
broken by the economic crisis, a
Conservative-dominated coalition imposed the
deepest spending cuts in a generation,
slashing benefits in an attempt to restore
confidence in the nationâs finances.
With the banks refusing to lend, and millions
of people thrown out of work, capitalism itself seemed utterly discredited.
In other countries, many turned to the far
Right, swelling the ranks of the Nazis and their allies.
In Britain, a generation of intellectuals
turned their backs on capitalism, placing
their faith in the utopian idealism of Soviet
Communism and closing their eyes to the horrors of Stalinâs barbaric regime.
For decades afterwards this extraordinary
historical moment when capitalism itself
appeared to have failed was forgotten, and
looked like the stuff of ancient history.
But in the summer of 2011, with the eurozone
in chaos, the British economy stagnant and
the U.S. crippled by debt, with social
mobility at a standstill and millions of
ordinary families squeezed until they can
barely breathe, it feels disturbingly familiar.
In the past two days alone, stock markets have
been in free-fall across the capitalist world.
With investors manifestly losing confidence in
Spain and Italy, two of Europeâs biggest
economies, a second devastating world recession cannot be ruled out.
Although the share-price plunge does not yet
come close to the infamous Wall Street Crash
of 1929, this weekâs market mayhem is a
chilling reminder of the sheer fragility of the capitalist system.
If the worst happens, if Spain and Italy go
down and the euro crumbles, then the world economy really will be in trouble.
Only 20 years ago, the capitalist West was
congratulating itself on victory in the Cold
War. The Berlin Wall had come down, the Soviet
Empire had broken up, and American
intellectuals were even proclaiming the âend of historyâ.
Marxism was dead and capitalism triumphant, or
so we were told. Having lifted millions in the
West out of poverty, having showered them with
goods and opportunities, the free-market system could do no wrong.
Today, the picture is very different. For
although the Left has never recovered from the
fall of the Soviet Union, capitalism has
rarely seemed in a more desperate condition.
Last year Barclays boss Bob Diamond pocketed an incredible £6.
Last year Barclays boss Bob Diamond pocketed
an incredible £6.5 million - and that's on
top of his £8 million-plus annual pay package
And with bankers still pocketing gigantic
bonuses and Europe swept by a wave of
austerity, even the Right are beginning to
wonder whether the system is intolerably
loaded in favour of rich metropolitan elites.
Only last week, for example, the Tory MP
Douglas Carswell suggested that âthe free
market all too often turns out not to be a
free market at all, but a corporatist racket for the fewâ.
Modern Conservatives, he said, should be âas
suspicious of Big Business and Corporatism as
we have been of Big Governmentâ.
On the surface, this may sound shocking. Yet
when you dig a little deeper, it is not hard
to see why so many people have lost faith in the free market.
The entire premise of the capitalist system,
after all, is that in a free market, hard work
will produce its own reward. For capitalists,
the important thing is equality of
opportunity. If you put in the effort, then
you can be whatever you want to be, regardless of your background.
So when Margaret Thatcher, one of
capitalismâs most passionate champions, ran
for the Tory leadership in 1975, she defined
her values as âthe encouragement of variety
and individual choice, the provision of fair
incentives and rewards for skill and hard
work, and a belief in the wide distribution of individual private propertyâ.
And when she walked into Downing Street four
years later, she promised to ensure that âhard work paysâ.
But you do not have to be a card-carrying
Left-winger to see why millions of people
not just in Britain but across the world feel completely cheated.
When most of us contemplate the results of the
bankersâ greed, for example, talk of âfair
incentives and rewardsâ seems a sick joke.
In every corner of Europe, ordinary families,
through absolutely no fault of their own, are
paying an intolerable price for the outrageous avarice of the financial elite.
Recent figures show that City bonuses came to
a staggering £14âbillion last year, with
one executive, Barclays boss Bob Diamond,
pocketing an incredible £6.5âmillion â
and thatâs on top of his £8âmillion-plus annual pay package.
When she walked into Downing Street, Margaret Thatcher promised
When she walked into Downing Street, Margaret
Thatcher promised to ensure that 'hard work pays'
Yet at the same time, banks are refusing to
lend to ordinary families and small businesses.
Indeed, last month the banks actually took in
as deposits £3âbillion more than they
lent, which goes a long way to explaining why growth is virtually non-existent.
âNo wonder economic growth is barely visible
to the naked eye,â remarked the
Coalitionâs former Treasury spokesman, Lord
Oakeshott, âwhen the banks keep sucking billions out of the economy.â
These are, incidentally, the same banks, such
as RBS and HBOS, that British taxpayers had to
save from the consequences of their own reckless gluttony.
Three years ago, the Government spent
£500âbillion to bail out the collapsing
banking system. And now, while the bankers
toast themselves with vintage champagne, the
rest of us are picking up the bills.
But the bankersâ greed is only one symptom
of a wider malaise. The stark truth is that
millions of ordinary families feel the system gives them no chance of success.
The facts are simply unanswerable. A child
born in 1971 has less chance of moving up the
social ladder than one born in 1951.
On top of that, the gap between rich and poor
has grown steadily since the 1970s, with some
of the biggest increases coming during the 13-year New Labour regime.
Half a century ago, during the Fifties and
Sixties, grammar schools, job opportunities in
manufacturing and the death of deference meant
that working-class children felt they had a decent chance of getting on.
And in their different ways, state-school
educated prime ministers such as Harold
Wilson, Ted Heath, Jim Callaghan, Margaret
Thatcher and John Major gave the impression
that anybody could make it, regardless of their background.
Even in 1931, during the last great crisis of
capitalism, Britain was run by a prime
minister, Ramsay MacDonald, who was the
illegitimate son of a Scottish labourer and a
poor housemaid. At a time when it would have
been easy to imagine that power belonged
exclusively to the rich, MacDonald was a shining example of social mobility.
Nobody could possibly look at our leaders and
draw the same conclusion today.
From Cameron, Clegg and Osborne
respectively the son of a millionaire
stockbroker, a banker and the heir to a
baronetcy to Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, one
the son of a North London intellectual, the
other the privately educated son of a
professor, British politics has become the
plaything of a tiny self-regarding elite,
totally out of touch with ordinary families.
Looking at our political class, you begin to
suspect that modern capitalism is loaded in
favour of those who already enjoy wealth and
power. It has become a closed system,
impossible to penetrate unless you are incredibly lucky.
Other facts tell a similar story.
As the Tory minister David Willetts showed in
a provocative book last year, Britainâs
youngsters are being cut adrift. Thanks partly
to ferocious competition from Eastern European
immigrants, workers in their 20s today earn
far less than their parents did at the same age.
And with house prices having soared and banks
refusing to lend, they find it impossible to get onto the property ladder.
As a result, the old Conservative dream of a
âproperty-owning democracyâ is
increasingly reserved for the silver-haired.
Most experts recognise that home-ownership is
one of the keys to a stable, prosperous,
hard-working society yet since 1997, home
ownership among people in their 20s has steadily fallen.
Of course there was a time when education
offered a leg-up: but those days are becoming
a fading memory. Thanks to the unforgivable
abolition of the grammar schools, the gap
between private and state education has become a chasm.
In a country that claims to value competition,
it is nothing less than a disgrace that just
four expensive private schools Eton,
Westminster, St Paulâs, St Paulâs Girls
send as many students to Oxford and Cambridge
as 2,000 state schools put together.
Meanwhile, the Governmentâs education
reforms mean that working-class children face
the prospect of paying back £9,000 a year in
tuition fees if they choose to go to university.
And this, of course, comes at a time when
fat-cat vice chancellors, already rewarded
with grace-and-favour residences and boundless
expense accounts, are being paid an average of more than £220,000 each.
On holiday in Tuscany something well beyond
most British families perhaps David Cameron
should spend an afternoon with his great
predecessor Benjamin Disraeliâs book, Sybil.
In this work, first published in 1845, the
greatest Tory statesman of the Victorian era
warned that Britain had become âtwo nations
¦ who are as ignorant of each otherâs
habits, thoughts, and feelings as if they were
dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of
different planets; who are formed by a
different breeding, are fed by a different
food, are ordered by different manners, and
are not governed by the same laws: the rich and the poorâ.
Disraeli was no socialist. But as an outsider
himself, born into a Jewish family, he
recognised that capitalism could only take
root in ordinary peopleâs hearts and minds
if it gave them a stake of their own.
At bottom, capitalism is as much a moral
enterprise as it is an economic one. If those
lucky enough to become successful ignore the
virtues of thrift, self-discipline and
sobriety, as well as the moral imperative to
look after the weak, then capitalism
degenerates into cronyism and self-interest.
At its best, the free market is a tremendous
liberating force. During the Fifties and
Sixties, it gave millions of people
opportunities their parents could barely have
imagined: happy childhoods, good schools,
well-paid jobs and contented retirements.
On holiday in Tuscany - something well beyond most British fami
On holiday in Tuscany - something well beyond
most British families - perhaps David Cameron
should spend an afternoon with his great
predecessor Benjamin Disraeli's book, Sybil
But when capitalism fails, as in the 1930s,
then it allows extremism to thrive.
During that unhappy decade, some were
bewitched by the false promise of Stalinist
Russia; others flocked to the blood-drenched banners of the Far Right.
Eighty years on, capitalism has once again
lost its way. With millions betrayed by their
under-performing schools, locked out of the
job market, forgotten by the banks and
abandoned by their politicians, Britain is in
danger of becoming two nations again.
Modern capitalism is not beyond redemption.
But it badly needs to rediscover its moral
dimension, lost amid the scramble to protect
the privileges of a narrow metropolitan elite.
It is time that our politicians cracked down
on non-domiciled billionaires, and time they
made sure the rich elite paid their fair share of our national tax bill.
And if David Cameron really wants to rekindle
the British peopleâs faith in the capitalist
system, then he should go further. He should
force the banks to lend more money to
individuals and small businesses, getting our economy moving again.
He should restore a culture of competition and
excellence to our state schools, giving
working-class children a genuine sense that
they can climb the ladder. And he should make
it a priority to encourage real jobs in real
businesses, reinvigorating a manufacturing
sector that has been abandoned for far too long.
The stakes could not be higher. Unless
capitalism opens its arms to the common man,
then an entire generation will conclude that
it is no more than a fig leaf for the super-rich.
That would be a tragedy. For despite all
capitalismâs weakness despite the flaws,
inequalities and hypocrisies that are an
inevitable part of any human endeavour it
remains the only way to promote real and lasting opportunity.
Other systems have been tried, and they have
collapsed in bloodstained ruins. Only
capitalism the free exchange of goods,
skills, services and ideas has proved itself
true to the instincts of human nature.
Today, we can only hope that capitalismâs
champions learn the lessons of history.
For if they fail, then the results could be too dreadful to contemplate.
Read more:
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2022993/Capitalism-crisis-80-years-ago-banking-collapse-devastated-Europe-triggering-war.html#ixzz1UO1xowqN>http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2022993/Capitalism-crisis-80-years-ago-banking-collapse-devastated-Europe-triggering-war.html#ixzz1UO1xowqN
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/08/
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/08/
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/08/
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