I meant to comment on this yesterday, but didn't get time. > We've almost certainly reached a steady-state economy. [...] > if governments are going to > exist at all in the form that we know them today, politicians will be > seriously thinking not how to create jobs but how to educate children and > young people in order to share the highly specialized jobs that remain once > our manufacturing, transport and retailing systems have become largely > automated.
Yes, we will have different economy, and lower overall manhours of employment, however distributed, when the steady state condition fully sets in, but we've got a huge opportunity for jobs over about the next 30 years, managing the transition of industry and infrastructure from oil power to the suite of alternative energy sources which must replace it. With declining birth rates, it should provide a spate of almost full employment (in conjunction, presumably, with a lot of geriatic health care jobs) once it gets underway in earnest, shortly after people finally face up to the reality of declining oil supplies despite ever increasing energy demands. With the probable loss of the supercharged industrial base fueled by oil, maintenance and upgrades of most hardware, both major civil infrastructure and small equipment, will need to be by replacements of a much more durable construction, as the casually throwaway model of systems maintenance will likely be no longer an affordable option. It is far too early to predict if this might imply the return of craftsmanship, and a hardware repair industry. There are lots of possible directions and characters that this transition could assume. Some, like a colleague in a neighbouring office, suggest that the addiction to personal transportation will drive an era of personal electric cars, and innumerable electric generators of every form imaginable, scattered over the ladscape. Others suggest the lower yield and portability of electric power will drive a need for increased efficiency which will result in a proliferation of public transportation solutions, and a great reduction in all forms of long distance travel. Whatever form it takes, it is hard to imagine how it could not result in a deep alteration in the structure of urban environments, requiring a lot of rethinking and rebuilding. -Pete On Mon, 29 Aug 2011, Arthur Cordell wrote: > Agree. But only to add that a steady state economy is likely as we move > from an economy of tangibles to an economy of intangibles. > > > > arthur > > > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson > Sent: Monday, August 29, 2011 11:39 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION > Subject: Re: [Futurework] President Obama will nominate Alan Krueger > chairman Council of Economic Advisers. > > > > And Alan Krueger, employment specialist though he might be, will no more be > able to create jobs for America than Austan Goolsbee did. > > Most economists, politicians and senior civil servants cannot conceive of > the possibility that most of the Western advanced world is now locked into a > particular urban way of life in which there is no space, energy or daily use > of time for significant new consumer products -- even if they could be > imagined. As it is, there is nothing new on the horizon that can be remotely > compared with the significance that the radio, car and television had. These > are just three of the long line of unique consumer goods -- the buying power > -- that motivated the industrial revolution of the last 300 years. During > that period there was always a tangible item that individuals at every > social level aspired to possess. Today, there isn't such a list. As far as > products in daily use are concerned (repeat: in daily use) even the poorest > in an advanced country can enjoy much the same as the richest. > > We've almost certainly reached a steady-state economy. It hasn't been > planned but it's been initiated by the breakdown of the credit system. Of > course, President Obama will never dare say so, nor will any other president > for at least another generation. By this time, if governments are going to > exist at all in the form that we know them today, politicians will be > seriously thinking not how to create jobs but how to educate children and > young people in order to share the highly specialized jobs that remain once > our manufacturing, transport and retailing systems have become largely > automated. > > Keith > > > > > At 15:14 29/08/2011, you wrote: > > > > Content-Type: multipart/alternative; > boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0007_01CC6634.7A651840" > Content-Language: en-us > > > > > Obama to name Krueger for key economic post > > > > > by msnbc.com news services . Aug. 29, 2011 Read Later > <http://www.readability.com/articles/okbolvvf?legacy_bookmarklet=1> . > > Jon Roemer / Princeton > > President Barack Obama will nominate Princeton University's Alan Krueger to > be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. > > WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama will nominate Princeton University's > Alan Krueger to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, > a White House official said Monday. > > If his nomination is confirmed by the Senate, Krueger will succeed Austan > Goolsbee in the White House economic post. Goolsbee left the position > earlier this month to return to his teaching post at the University of > Chicago. The departure was a blow for the White House as Goolsbee had been a > high-profile spokesman on the economy. > > A labor economist, Krueger is likely to provide a voice inside the > administration for greater action to bring down unemployment and deal with > the problem of long-term joblessness, according to The WallStreet > <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44311574/ns/business/> > <http://www.readability.com/articles/okbolvvf?legacy_bookmarklet=1#rdb-footn > ote-1> 1 Journal. > > Krueger served as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy during > the first two years of the Obama administration, meaning he has recently > cleared the sometimes treacherous Senate confirmation process, the Journal > noted. > > The Krueger decision comes as Obama prepares to unveil a jobs package in a > speech planned for shortly after the September 5 Labor Day holiday. > > With U.S. unemployment at a stubbornly high 9.1 percent and amid fears the > economy could slide back into recession, Obama is under pressure to show he > is doing all he can to bolster growth. > > _____ > > > > > References > > > > > 1. ^ > <http://www.readability.com/articles/okbolvvf?legacy_bookmarklet=1#rdb-footn > ote-link-1> WallStreet <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44311574/ns/business/> > ( www.msnbc.msn.com <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/> ) ( > http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44311574/ns/business/ ) > > Share > . > > * Post to Twitter > <http://www.readability.com/articles/okbolvvf?legacy_bookmarklet=1> > * Post to Facebook > <http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=http://www.readability.com/articles/okb > olvvf> > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/08/ > > > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
