From now onwards, the West is generally moving away from consumer
product-led economic growth (if indeed it exists at all at present
outside questionable government statistics). Most of us now have a
standard house and a standard stock of goods and equipment within it.
Unless some amazing and uniquely new consumer product comes along
then most of us are now pretty fully occupied time-wise and
space-wise with what we have already.
While the comfortable 20-class will no doubt continue to keep fully
up-to-date with the very latest versions and fashions of the existing
stock of goods in order to maintain their status well ahead of the
80-class, the latter have only been able to catch up in the last 20
to 30 years or so because of steadily cheaper goods from Asia and by
having ready access to credit which banks have been showering upon
them -- up until 2008 anyway. Also, a majority of the 80-class are
taxation-neutral, or even taxation-negative, by virtue of receiving
transfer payments from the 20-class via governments.
From now onwards, economic growth (if it can be called that) will
take place along two main tracks. The first track is that of
increasingly sophisticated producer goods (involving much more
automation and computerization among other things) and a more
efficient energy infrastructure. Here we may note that China is
already moving bodily into this sector even before its own consumer
revolution is fully complete. For example, unfortunately for America,
China is now building its own state-of-the-art aircraft and
aero-engines; unfortunately for Germany, China is now building the
latest computerized machine tools; unfortunately for both America and
Europe, China is now building an extensive high-speed railway system
that will make its own domestic economy so much more efficient than ours.
The other track is that of consumer services, particularly in
education and health. Because high attainment in both of these will
increasingly depend on a deep knowledge of the genetic and epigenetic
predispositions of the individual, then this is where the West still
has a clear lead over China. The vast bulk of front-line research in
these areas still resides in America, Germany and the UK. Until China
can shake off its authoritarian state school methods which (by its
own government's admission) severely cramp creativity among its young
people, then the West will be able to retain its advantage for at
least, let us say, one or two generations to come.
But how will education and health services develop in the West? It's
all very well saying that we are trail-blazing the necessary
fundamental research, but both areas are chock-a-block with
restrictive practices. Also, because both services will increasingly
depend on the specific genetics and epigenetics of the individual
customer, such customized services are going to be increasingly
expensive. Will governments be able to tax their electorates
sufficiently to pay for these services more widely? Will sufficient
numbers of highly skilled teachers and doctors be taught and allowed
into these professions?
Those are questions which I wouldn't like to give definite answers
to. As regards serving the 80-classes in both China and the West,
each has their own specific educational deficiencies to
overcome. But maybe we have a clue already. The better-off 20-class
of Chinese parents are increasingly sending their children (and at
younger ages) to the minority of private 20-class schools and
universities in the West; and the more enterprising 20-class schools
and universities of the West are increasingly setting up shop in
China. Meanwhile, for economic reasons, the 80-class families of both
the West and China will probably continue their sub-replacement sizes
and thus disappear to zero in the next three of four generations.
Quod erat demonstrandum?
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com
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