Never before -- in the 200,000 year history of mankind -- have
populations decided to go extinct. But that is exactly what might
happen in more than a score of advanced countries in Europe. By
deciding to spend their incomes on the full standard kit of consumer
goods, services and leisure experiences rather than two (increasingly
expensive) children per woman, populations will go into steep decline
once the present crop of excessively old people dies off.
Whether European countries will completely re-stock their numbers in
the years to come by continuing to encourage the poor of Asia, Africa
and the Middle East to immigrate remains to be seen. For the last 30
or 40 years, this has been the surreptitious policy of senior
politicians and civil servants in order to maintain a sufficiently
large taxation base. But whether they'll continue to get away with it
remains to be seen. Even while indigenous populations are declining,
they may also decide to elect extreme right-wing governments or even
old-fashioned dictatorships which will finally erect efficient
barriers. If this happens, then, at some future stage, European
adults might decide to have more children and thus stabilize their
populations (albeit at much smaller numbers than today).
Stabilization of populations would only occur, however, when the twin
trends of ever-increasing automation and ever-increasing growth of
specialized skills balance up. That is, when the size of the consumer
market matches up with the necessary jobs which provide the market
with desirable goods and services, and maintain the basic
infrastructure. This is the natural equilibrium of what has occurred
during, say, 190,000 years of our existence. During the most recent
10,000 years of our agricultural and industrial eras, this
self-balancing act has only been interrupted for brief periods by mass warfare.
Sooner or later, the poor of mankind -- such as they might exist --
will begin to reach a European standard of living and go through the
same balancing process as we are now starting. Of course, the whole
of mankind might be wiped out by an unforeseen asteroid or a killer
virus that will have such a long gestation period that it will be
undetectable even as it spreads around. But, unlike Martin Rees,
Astronomer Royal, Master of Trinity College Cambridge and past
President of the Royal Society, who doesn't give us more than a
century's future existence, I remain optimistic. I believe we have at
least a few centuries yet until we reach the only possible solution.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com
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