Here's an area of concern over which plenty of jobs could be created,
but so far, most of the token seed money has only gone into (another)
assessment committees.
Mike, shouldn't Nova Scotia, with its average 3' above sea level
terrain, start getting prepared?
Has New York taken any initiative? Apart from filling in the air with
more monolithic structures, I heard of plans to create sea walls, but
how much could they divert?
Natalia
http://articles.boston.com/2012-06-25/metro/32393729_1_sea-levels-powerful-storms-storm-surges
As temperatures are projected to climb, polar ice to melt, and oceans to
swell over the coming decades, Boston is likely to bear a
disproportionate impact of rising sea levels, government scientists
report in a new study.
The seas along the East Coast from North Carolina to New England are
rising three to four times faster than the global average, and coastal
cities, utilities, beaches, and wetlands are increasingly vulnerable to
flooding, especially from storm surges, according to the US Geological
Survey study published Sunday.
“Cities in the hot spot, like Norfolk, New York, and Boston, already
experience damaging floods during relatively low-intensity storms,” said
Asbury Sallenger, a Geological Survey oceanographer and lead author of
the study in the journal Nature Climate Change. “Accelerated sea-level
rise,” he said, will add to “the height that storm surges and breaking
waves reach on the coast.”
The findings come as Boston and Massachusetts officials are taking the
first of a range of responses to the threat of rising seas. The report
did not project how much levels would rise in the Northeast, but
globally, oceans are projected to increase between 2 feet and 6 feet by
the end of the century, and as much as an additional 5 feet during the
heaviest storms. Climate scientists say such storms are likely to
increase in intensity and frequency over the coming decades.
In Boston, officials have begun mapping low-lying areas and critical
systems that are most likely to be inundated. The maps show that if sea
levels rise just 2.5 feet, it could take little more than a Nor’easter
to put much of the Back Bay, East Boston, South Boston, Chelsea,
Cambridge, and elsewhere underwater, including much of Logan
International Airport and the financial district.
As a result, the Boston Water and Sewer Commission will begin inspecting
hundreds of miles of sewers, storm drain connections, pumping stations,
and other utility systems this summer to assess what needs to be done to
protect them from rising seas. The Boston Redevelopment Authority, as
part of its new climate adaptation plan, recently began requiring
developers to fill out a questionnaire about their awareness of the
potential impact of climate change and whether it is influencing their
building plans.
The city, which now requires its departments to consider sea-level rise
in planning decisions, has also launched a “green ribbon” commission to
build support in the private sector for blunting climate change. The
commission will advise the city and large companies on ways to cut
greenhouse-gas emissions, increase energy efficiency, and prepare for
rising seas.
“There’s an absolute need for developers to be educated and aware of
their vulnerabilities and the risks that they’re taking by building in
Boston,” said Kairos Shen, the city’s chief planner.
In recent years, state officials have changed codes to require
developers building in areas prone to coastal flooding to erect the
lowest floor of any new development or substantial renovation at least 2
feet above where water levels now rise during the most powerful storms.
The state also now requires development projects in flood zones to be
able to withstand sea-level rise for the life of the buildings.
State officials have been working with the federal government on
identifying coastal areas vulnerable to flooding and with local
officials to provide developers incentives to avoid building in
hazardous areas, and if they do, to build at higher elevations.
“The threats of sea-level rise are significant,” said Bruce Carlisle,
director of the state Office of Coastal Zone Management.
Some major institutions in low-lying areas have already taken action to
protect their buildings. Among them is the New England Aquarium, where
flooding can occur from moderate storm surges.
The aquarium, built beside Boston Harbor, has already moved its
electrical systems from its basement to higher floors and elevated the
harbor walk on its periphery to account for rising seas.
“As we get further along with climate change, buildings in the city like
the aquarium are going to have to look at anywhere water can penetrate,”
said Bud Ris, its chief executive. “People are going to have to think
about whether they need sandbags or automatic devices to close off their
buildings during storms or high tides. They’re also going to have to
think about drainage and how to divert water.”
The new study used tide gauge data to show that the region’s waters have
risen between 2 millimeters and 3.7 millimeters per year over the past
two decades, compared with the global average of 0.6 millimeters to 1
millimeter per year.
The report projects that this difference will continue when seas start
to rise at an accelerating pace as global temperatures increase,
land-based ice melts, and oceans increase in volume as they warm.
Differences in ocean currents, temperatures, and salinity, among other
factors, can cause sea levels to be higher or lower in some regions.
“The real take-home is that we need to recognize more clearly how
variations can occur with sea rise around the country, and that
policymakers need to factor that into their concerns,” Sallenger said.
Rob Young, a professor of coastal geology at Western Carolina University
in North Carolina and author of a book, “The Rising Sea,” said the study
echoes others that have forecast accelerating sea-level rise in the
Northeast.
“This paper reinforces what the scientific community has been saying for
the past few decades: that sea level is rising faster in the future, and
that we should be prepared for that, and the longer we wait, the more
expensive it’s going to be to respond,” Young said.
Bob Dean, a retired professor of civil and coastal engineering at the
University of Florida in Gainesville, noted the findings may offer hope
to other parts of the United States where the report showed little to no
evidence of accelerating sea-level rise, such as in the Southeast and
the West Coast.
He added that it is also possible that the study may be highlighting a
cycle, rather than a trend. “We should be careful with the data to make
sure this is not a short-term change,” he said.
“It’s expensive to underestimate sea-level rise, but it’s also expensive
to base planning on overestimates.”
Ellen Douglas, an assistant professor of ocean sciences at the
University of Massachusetts in Boston who has mapped the potential
consequences of rising seas on the city, said the findings are alarming.
She noted that greenhouse-gas emissions are higher than the highest
estimates by an international panel of scientists who monitor climate
change, with little promise of substantial reductions anytime soon.
And she said Boston has already seen its seas rise by nearly a foot over
the past century.
“The future flooding we’ve mapped ... all along the coastal fringe of
Boston Harbor could happen even sooner than we’ve been anticipating,”
she said. “Ultimately, this could mean transportation disruptions, storm
drain backups, basements flooding, and a lot of heartache for those who
work and live in Boston.”
David Abel can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter
@davabel.
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