It's not about how much oil is left, it's about how much oil is left which is 1)cheap to extract, and 2) able to be extracted at a rate which can keep up with demand. We are already on the edge of the downslope there, it is only the continuing weak world economy which prevents this from being obvious. It rather appears that this situation may continue for a while, and though I don't immediately see how the connections would be made, I'm beginning to suspect that the weak economy can in fact be traced back to the fact that we have reached the edge of the downslope.
And as for fracking, what good is an abundant supply of natural gas if it comes at the cost of injecting poisons into the entire continental groundwater supply? Now how much of that newly won energy is going to have to go into processing water to make it safe to use even for agriculture? Nothing like the profit motive to deliver a pathological solution to every problem, which just kicks the pebble down the road to where it becomes an avalanche of giant boulders rolling back on us... -Pete On Thu, 30 Aug 2012, Keith Hudson wrote: > Jeremy Rifkin is right, overall, when he says that the present > industrial-consumerist era is coming to an end. He's wrong to say that it's > anything to do with a carbon economy. In the post-hunter-gatherer era, trees > have been burned for fuel and coal outcrops and oil seepages were exploited > wherever found. Even natural gas was used for street lighting in China at > around 200BC. He's wrong about the 30-year supply of oil. There's at least 100 > years of this left, plus the natural gas associated with it. Also, fracked gas > and methane clathrates will last for centuries yet, particularly if city-bound > excess populations of the undeveloped world follow the steeply declining > fertility trends of the advanced countries. The last two sources will produce > energy with only about half the residual CO2 as present energy-production > methods. > > Jeremy Rifkin is quite right about the power-groups at the top (which I call > the 20-class). But man, like all social mammals, has always tended to > stratify. Once a new species comes into existence, stratification is > absolutely necessary to maintain quality control and to fit the species > evermore efficiently into the environment around it. Be it ever so weakly > expressed in some cultures, females always tend to partner themselves upwards > in order to leave handicapped and inept males behind without issue. The only > difference between today and, say, 300 years ago when the > industrial-consumerist revolution was just getting started, is that we now > have more different types of power-groups than before. > > Keith > > > At 19:04 29/08/2012, Ed wrote: > > Jeremy Rifkin was the guest on TVO's Agenda during the past two nights. His > > ideas flowed out like tidal waves so I can't remember everything he said, > > but his central idea seemed to be that the past 200 years shouldn't be > > thought of in terms of being market or ideologically driven but in terms of > > being driven by the discovery and availability of carbon - ie. coal, oil and > > natural gas. A carbon based economy, he argued, leads to "vertical" > > economic and social organization of the kind we've had for the past two or > > three centuries. The carbon that fuels the economy is something somebody > > gets for us and controls us with. Hence it puts some groups at the top of > > the heap and makes everyone else subservient to them in a highly stratified > > and multi-specialized system. > > > > Ah, he then said, but the carbon economy has to come to an end, and in > > Rifkin's opinion it will end very soon. A carbon based economy can't last > > more than another 30 years or so. What then? I didn't quite fully grasp > > what he was saying, but it was something like vast horizontally organized > > networks based on green energy with everybody pitching in and everybody > > benefiting would come into being. It all sounded very beautiful though > > somewhat idealistic if one considers continued rapid population growth, > > diminishing agricultural potential, the growth of cities and global warming. > > > > However, it was interesting. If you want to hear what he said yourselves, > > go to the TVO/Agenda website and take a look and listen. > > > > Ed > > > > P.S.: Chris Hedges, co-author of "Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt" is > > on the Agenda tonight. I've read the book, and it's not an uplifting > > happiness pill. > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Futurework mailing list > > [email protected] > > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
