A Maunder Minimum is a period of bitterly cold winters. The last one in the
northern hemisphere (when the Thames froze over most years) was between
1645 and 1715. This is associated with a paucity of sunspots -- from maybe
1,000 a year to three or four. The latter is where we're headed, it appears
so far.
Keith
------------------------------
British Climate Scientist Warns: Real Risk Of A Maunder Minimum Little Ice
Age
* Date: 28/10/13
* Paul Hudson, BBC
A leading British climate scientist claims the current rate of decline in
solar activity is such that there is now a real risk of a Little Ice Age.
The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and
was called the Maunder solar minimum.
Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the
current rate of decline in solar activity is such that theres a real risk
of seeing a return of such conditions.
Ive been to see Professor Mike Lockwood to take a look at the work he has
been conducting into the possible link between solar activity and climate
patterns.
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the
sun was unusually active and a so called grand maximum occurred around 1985.
Since then the sun has been getting quieter.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to
determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity
is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was
in exactly the same state as it is now and the present decline is faster
than any of those 24.
Based on his findings hes raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from
less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s,
which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is,
according to him, more likely than not to happen.
He believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate
witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years and that over
the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum.
Its worth stressing that not every winter would be severe; nor would every
summer be poor. But harsh winters and unsettled summers would become more
frequent.
Professor Lockwood doesnt hold back in his description of the potential
impacts such a scenario would have in the UK.
He says such a change to our climate could have profound implications for
energy policy and our transport infrastructure.
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