Christoph Reuss wrote:
> Just wait until the EU-extension to Eastern Europe (and later possibly
> to North Africa). With this, the EU will have the "cheapo backyard" just
> like the U$ has in South America -- even closer...
Ed Weick wrote:
<<<<
I don't think so. The EU is a pretty exclusive club. The kinds of things a
country has to do to become part of it are pretty rigorous. I'm not fully
current on the situation, but I believe that Poland and Hungary have had to
jump through some tough hoops to be considered for membership. The benefits
of joining can be very large.
>>>>
Yes, the possible benefits of the EU (vis-a-vis Eastern European countries)
are so large that it's very doubtful that Poland, Hungary and the four or
five other candidates will ever be allowed in. Ten years ago they were
promised membership by 1998, then by 2000, now by 2002 -- and on it goes.
The main reason is that by far the largest item in the EU's budget (about
half) is support for the farming industry and the French government
(particularly) is implacable that subsidies should continue for their
farmers and not be shared among the new entrants.
The French murmur that, of course, they agree with most other EU countries
that the EU should be enlarged but, in fact, if these East European
countries were allowed in, with or without farming subsidies, the EU would
be flooded with cheap food and the farming industry in most EU countries
would largely collapse. Little by little, most EU countries are adjusting
to the prospect of cheap food and that the massive EU subsidies to farmers
will have to be reduced in due course. Once again, there has been much talk
for at least five to ten years now, but we are no closer to these
(collectively known as CAP -- Common Agricultural Policy) being modified.
Meanwhile, the EU ploughs on (if you'll excuse the pun), consolidating
itself, or trying to, into a new nation-state. Unlike NAFTA or the putative
FTAA, whose agreements are described in a treaty of a handful of pages and
involving no extra bureaucracy, the EU is bound by the "Acquis
Communautaire" (AC). Note that this is a French name and it epitomises the
French concept of the desirability of a highly centralised form of
government. The AC is a document of 80,000 pages (pages, not words) and is
obligatory on all EU countries. It is interpreted by the European
Commissioners -- a non-elected body -- and can only be modified with great
difficulty. The European Parliament, while elected, has no powers to do so.
Most EU countries have substantial reservations about parts of the AC --
and so do the applicant countries -- but these are ignored for the sake of
the supposed benefits of the EU.
Next year is going to be interesting. Most of the EU (but not the UK) are
due to change their individual currencies for the Euro on January 1 next
year. The undemocratic nature of the EU is instanced by the fact that the
Euro has never been voted on by the electorate. At the present time, 70% of
Germans and 60% of the French are against it. The Euro has been officially
in existence for trading purposes for the past two years, but only 2% of
import/export businesses in the EU (for the which the Euro was supposed to
have especial benefits) actually use it in their transactions with one
another.
My guess is that on January 1, when ordinary folk in most EU countries will
be paid in Euros, when they'll be obliged to buy goods in Euros, and when
their own currencies are withdrawn ("irrevocably", say the EU Commission),
then there'll be riots on a scale which will dwarf the S-26 affairs into
something akin to vicarage tea parties. My guess is that this experiment
will last for about two months at the most. The "irrevocable" will have to
be revoked, and their former coinages and banknotes will have to be brought
out again.
Furthermore, it's my guess that the reaction against the Euro will be so
immense that the EU will then collapse as swiftly as the Soviet Union did
in '92. Nobody forecasted the latter event and, to my knowledge, nobody is
forecasting the former prospect either. Essentially, what has been
happening in the last few decades is that France and Germany (in
particular), in trying to create a super-nation-state, are turning the
clock back. The nation-state is dying, never mind super-nation-states.
Keith H
___________________________________________________________________
Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org>
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727;
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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