At 06:25 01/10/01 -0400, Michael Gurstein wrote: >I'm also expecting a major increase in the use of virtual/remote methods of >communication/information management. But then, like many of those who have >followed this, I've been wrong before--anyone remember video-phones?
These were really jerky and crummy and it wasn't surprising that they didn't take off. >Video-conferencing has been around for a very long time (by tech standards) >at least since the mid-1960's with a resurgence of interest that coincides >with upticks in energy/travel costs and seems to go in 10 year cycles. > >This last one though, might be real. Pres. Bush has been shown on tv >several times conspicuously video-conferencing from Camp David. Four of my >students--out of 16 or so, (most of whom work full-time) in a higher level >MIS class regularly use video-conferencing, and by the way, find it tedious >in the extreme! This is interesting! What is the set-up. Is this is where someone is speaking 1:1, or 1:group, or 1 of any in group:1 of any in group? (This shows my ignorance of videoconferencing.) If you have time I'd like to know exactly what is tedious about it -- if it's possible to describe. Are there too many time lapses? Is it lack of decent camera angles? Is it the artificiality of the situation? I'd be fascinated to know, if you can put your finger on it. My guess (and this is a pure guess) is that might be to do with direction of gaze (the lack of, at present) -- that is, the subtleties of it that go on naturally when one is talking in a real group situation. Perhaps, at the end of the day, really satisfying videoconferencing can only take place when each person can actually see the rest of the group before him on the screen as though in a real room and can direct his gaze accordingly when speaking. This, of course, would need massive software/processing power and thus could be many years off. But today we have the launch in Tokyo of the world's first 3G mobilephone -- from NTT DoCoMo -- to be called 'Foma'. Videophoning is one of its uses and it'll be interesting to see whether this might be the 'killer ap' that telecomm firms that have invested so much in 3G licences are so desperate for. However, most European 3G firms, including Vodaphone, think that the technology is not good enough yet, so Foma might not take off. We'll have to see. Keith > >Whether this time the costs in time, and energy, (and now perceived personal >risk) of travel; will outweigh the benefits of f2f contact, remains to be >seen. > >Mike Gurstein > >Michael Gurstein, Ph.D. >(Visiting) Professor >School of Management >New Jersey Institute of Technology >Newark NJ > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Keith Hudson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: "Lawrence DeBivort" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Cc: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Sent: Monday, October 01, 2001 3:27 AM >Subject: Distance-working/Low-rise buildings > > >> >> 2. Yes, it's likely that more video-conferencing and distance-working will >> take place in the future. Indeed, a subsidiary reason why I started my >> choral music business (selling on the Net) was to test the idea that one >> could run a business without actually meeting one's working colleagues. >> (Only two out of my team of nine in eight different countries in Handlo >> Music have ever met -- that is, I've only met one of them and none of the >> others have met one another. We don't have video-conferencing though, only >> e-mail, but we work together very well even though we have minor language >> problems sometimes.) >> >> The problem here seems to me to be the fact that bosses are not yet ready >> to dispense with the "factory" method of management -- that they have to >> see those they oversee -- that they cannot entirely trust people to work >> conscientiously when they are out of sight. But quite besides my own >little >> outfit, there many businesses, including a major software firm, which >> operate successfully with distance-methods. Also, distance-learning by >> universities in various parts of the world is one of the fastest-growing >> sectors of all at the present time. >> >> I'm puzzled why distance-working and video-conferencing has not taken off >> much more quickly than they have done so far. Perhaps when broadband >> transmission becomes widespread and more cheaply available then we'll see >> it happening in a big way. The considerable reduction in overheads, and >> savings on commuting costs by staff means that those firms which can take >> the plunge will probably gain great advantages over their competitors. >> >> I imagine that it's got to happen sooner or later and that the dense >> clusterings of skyscrapers in many of our largest cities will become a >> thing of the past. >> >> Keith Hudson >> ___________________________________________________________________ >> >> Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org> >> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England >> Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; >> mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] >> ________________________________________________________________________ >> > > > > ___________________________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
