Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Here's a reply from a FWer to my previous message and my reply to him:
>At 06:13 28/09/01 -0600, you wrote:
>>HI Keith,
>>
>>I agree with everything you say apart from a return to the
>>(inflationary) 1970s.
[...]
>>We are heading for something much more
>>like the late 1890s, early 1900s - recession followed by
>>growth based on the next flight of technologies in the current
>>(new) set - fuel cells and medical biotech
>
>I agree in principle except that I see the average consumer will not go
>much further in future years into spending on consumer products of the
>techno sort unless they're cheap. Yes, to biotech services, of course. In
>fact, because of the increasing needs of future health and old age services
>(of unknown financial cost, but likely to be large), I think a great many
>people will be increasingly hesitant to spending on big consumer items
>(other than houses and cars) in the future.
There is another fairly major spending imperative looming in north america:
the introduction of digital/high definition television is continuing
on schedule, with the old NTSC standard on track to be retired, and
its frequencies reassigned, in the US, in early 2006, with Canada's stated
intention to follow suit with about 18 months delay. While the minimum
requirement for the change is a set-top receiver/adapter box, new
programs in both US and Canada are already appearing in the 16x9
aspect ratio of the hi-def standard, and new hi-def (1100x1900 pixel)
sets are beginning to appear for sale, albeit with very high early
market pricing (2-20k). The new frequencies (around 650MHz) are aready
broadcasting in the US, and in Canada the signal is now available
via satellite. I expect that once the tv-addicted population of north
america gets a look at the incredible image improvement offered by
the new hi-def standard, the demand for full capability sets will
totally occlude the market for the minimal set-top adapters. There
will be a wholesale upgrade of all the tv sets in north america,
starting right now, peaking around 2006.
-Pete Vincent
