At 13:05 28/09/01 +0000, Pete Vincent wrote: (FWer) >>>We are heading for something much more >>>like the late 1890s, early 1900s - recession followed by >>>growth based on the next flight of technologies in the current >>>(new) set - fuel cells and medical biotech (KH) >>I agree in principle except that I see the average consumer will not go >>much further in future years into spending on consumer products of the >>techno sort unless they're cheap. Yes, to biotech services, of course. In >>fact, because of the increasing needs of future health and old age services >>(of unknown financial cost, but likely to be large), I think a great many >>people will be increasingly hesitant to spending on big consumer items >>(other than houses and cars) in the future. (PV) >There is another fairly major spending imperative looming in north america: >the introduction of digital/high definition television is continuing >on schedule, with the old NTSC standard on track to be retired, and >its frequencies reassigned, in the US, in early 2006, with Canada's stated >intention to follow suit with about 18 months delay. While the minimum >requirement for the change is a set-top receiver/adapter box, new >programs in both US and Canada are already appearing in the 16x9 >aspect ratio of the hi-def standard, and new hi-def (1100x1900 pixel) >sets are beginning to appear for sale, albeit with very high early >market pricing (2-20k). The new frequencies (around 650MHz) are aready >broadcasting in the US, and in Canada the signal is now available >via satellite. I expect that once the tv-addicted population of north >america gets a look at the incredible image improvement offered by >the new hi-def standard, the demand for full capability sets will >totally occlude the market for the minimal set-top adapters. There >will be a wholesale upgrade of all the tv sets in north america, >starting right now, peaking around 2006.
Experience in England, where we've had HDTV for some four/five years, is that "wholesale upgrade of all the tv sets" has not occurred so far. Most HDTV sales so far are to the middle class for status reasons. The Government intended to close down analogue transmission when ownership of digital TV reached (I think) 95% and this was expected to happen by around the end of this year or early next. But this won't happen. At present, ownership is around 40-50% and the sales curve suggests that it might flatten out to about 75% ownership in the next year or two with slow take-up thereafter -- mainly depending on younger people buying HDTV in their first homes while the older owners of analogue are simply dying out over the next couple of decades. There are many like me in their mid-60s who could afford the present high-priced HDTV but have no wish to tap into multi-channel non-public service digital TV, are satisfied with the existing quality of the analogue screen, and couldn't care less about "keeping up with the Jones". I think I'm right in saying that present sales of set-top boxes (mainly to young and middle-aged working class male sports enthusiasts) is still exceeding HDTV sales -- but these won't be able to receive public service digital TV when analogue is cut off (not that this particular segment of the population would care very much!). Existing public service analogue TV (BBC and ITV) is now a precious part of the lives of millions of older poor people, who are often lonely and trapped in their homes most of the time, and there'd be a massive political backlash if the Government tried to cut off analogue transmission peremptorily within the next ten years or so. My guess is that the Government will call a halt to analogue TV transmission when ownership reaches around 75/80% (in, say, two or three years' time) but I'm pretty sure that they will have to give a special "TV grant" to pensioners in order to buy HDTV sets (in the same way that pensioners receive a "cold weather" grant at Christmas). As to the price of HDTV sets, yes, they're still very high (at around US$900-1,000 compared with US$200-400 for analogue sets) as manufactured by Western firms which are creaming off at present. But now that China is in the WTO, I'd expect that Chinese manufacturers (which already make most of the analogue TV sets in the world) will be flooding Europe with (good quality), low-priced HDTV sets pretty soon. In America and Canada there might be intensive lobbying by home manufacturers against these imports but this won't wash much. If you think about it, cheap HDTV sets from China will let Governments off the political hook as regards helping pensioners to change over. Keith Hudson ___________________________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
