----- Original Message ----- From: "David Farber" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, October 09, 2001 5:52 AM Subject: IP: :The Day The World Came To Its Senses?
> > >Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2001 22:24:51 -0700 > >From: "Robert J. Berger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > > > >The Day The World Came To Its Senses? > >By Bill Moore > >http://evworld.com/databases/storybuilder.cfm?storyid=245 > > > >This week, Phil Watts, the chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, gave a > >remarkable speech in New York, just three weeks after the tragedy of > >September 11th. > > > >Accustomed to making and approving business decisions and technology > >plans that extend decades into the future, Watts told an audience > >assembled under the auspices of the United Nations Development > >Program, that Shell, one of the largest oil companies in the world, > >was preparing for the "End of the Hydrocarbon Age." > > > >He painted two possible scenarios he termed, "Dynamics as Usual" and > >"The Spirit of the Coming Age." > > > >Under the first scenario, Shell envisions an "evolutionary" carbon > >shift from coal to natural gas to renewables. Petroleum's current 40 > >percent global energy share will drop to 25 percent by 2050. Natural > >gas market share will climb to 20 percent while the remainder will > >come from a combination of nuclear and various renewable sources. > > > >Under "The Spirit of the Coming Age" scenario, the world would > >experience a far more dramatic shift from carbon-intensive fuels to > >hydrogen. Watt's stated this second scenario, "explores something > >rather more revolutionary, the potential for a truly hydrogen economy, > >growing out of new and exciting developments in fuel cells, advanced > >hydrocarbon technologies and carbon dioxide sequestration." > > > >Watts envisioned fuel cells beginning to reach serious market > >penetration by 2025 and as a result dramatically altering the energy > >landscape long before oil becomes scarce. > > > >Watts isn't just talking the talk. He has pledged to walk the walk by > >committing between $500 million and $1 billion over the next five > >years to develop new energy businesses, concentrating primarily on > >solar and wind energy. > > > >Watts concluded his remarks by saying that oil companies can no longer > >assume they will dominate the next 100 years as they have the previous > >century. "That would be a very complacent view." > > > >Phil Watt's comments in New York this week are truly remarkable in the > >light of the events on and after September 11, 2001. Here is a major > >oil company executive publicly stating that the world is changing and > >his company plans to lead in this transition. He pointed out that not > >only does he intend to make Shell "a prime mover in this transitional > >period" but he also noted that "one in five of the world's population > >does not have access to commercial energy. It is our goal to > >contribute to the development of an affordable, sustainable energy > >system which will help reduce this sort of inequality." > > > ><snip> > > > >The challenge of using hydrogen, however, also creates new > >opportunities because it is best made and used on site, as > >needed. There are few places on earth that don't have sufficient > >sunlight and wind to make feasible the electrolysis of water from > >photovoltaics or wind power. Given the sharp drop in the cost of wind > >generated electricity, now as low as 4-5 cents per kilowatt and the > >equally sharp decline in the cost of photovoltaic energy technology -- > >which is forecast to continue to drop even more -- it is entirely > >possible that these technologies someday can be "married" to create a > >practical, affordable, self-contained generation system that provides > >a home, a business or a community with electricity, purified water and > >sufficient heat to warm and cool buildings. > > > ><snip> > > > >Or instead of electrolyzing water, someday we could have waste water > >treatment facilities that feed tanks of hydrogen-producing algae. This > >approach promises to be even more cost-effective. Communities could > >generate their own supply of hydrogen. The problem of transporting > >hydrogen would be minimized if not eliminated. > > > > Imagine the community of the future where algae-produced hydrogen > >powers fuel cells that produce electricity, clean water and district > >or process heat. And because of advances in energy efficiency and > >smart community planning, the homes and businesses in the community > >will utilize far less than they do today. > > > > And in the spirit of Phil Watts' vision, this technology would be > >available to all. Rural villages in Malawi and Uzbekistan and > >Honduras could have the energy they need to improve their quality of > >life. The standard of living would go up, there would be greater > >literacy, less environmental degradation and a lower birth rate. > > > ><snip> > > > >Is such a scenario feasible? Is it technically, economically, and > >politically possible? I believe it is. > > > >The bigger question is, "Can human nature adapt to this brave new > >world?" That is the real unknown. We are resilient. We are > >adaptive. And to be perfectly honest, do we have any other choice? The > >wider the gulf grows between the have and have-nots of the world, the > >more inequities we will see and the more terrorism we will experience. > > > >The hydrogen economy won't solve the problem of human nature, but it > >might just put us back in touch with the rhythms of the planet on > >which we all depend. Is this the impossible dream? Perhaps. I will be > >the first to admit it is imperfect. But I also believe it is one > >worth dreaming and more importantly, striving to achieve. September > >11th marks a great turning point in the history of man. Which path we > >take will determine whether it marks the beginning of the end or > >just the end of the beginning. > > > >-- > >Robert J. Berger > >UltraDevices, Inc. > >257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041 > >Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.ultradevices.com > >Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868 > > > > For archives see: http://www.interesting-people.org/ >
