The recent New York panegyric (see below) by Phil Watts (Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell) about the end of the hydrocarbon age and the dawn of the hydrogen age was interesting. But it mustn't be thought that this will be any sort of magic bullet for the world's problems. It might be good for Royal Dutch Shell and other energy corporations, but the greatest problems of mankind will still be around even with the most advanced and diversified hydrogen economy.
At present, natural gas and oil not only supply electrical energy in power stations but they are also the basic chemical feedstocks for a huge variety and quantity of drugs, plastics and other important materials including what is probably the most important -- nitrogenous fertilisers. Hydrogen will supply electrical energy but it won't produce these other byproducts, except by circuitous and thus, expremely expensive, processes which would probably increase the price of food, for example, several-fold relative to many other products. In a hydrogen economy, large-scale factory farming, needing large inputs of nitrogenous fertilisers, will no longer be possible. Food could only be produced by sustainable methods in which nitrogen is replenished by natural methods of absorption from the air -- with, thus, much smaller yields than now. Furthermore, a great deal of agricultural land -- perhaps as much as half to one third -- will then have to be given over to plants to be used for the manufacture of organic products. Phil Watts is quite right when he says: "one in five of the world's population does not have access to commercial energy. It is our [Shell's] goal to contribute to the development of an affordable, sustainable energy system which will help reduce this sort of inequality." This will reduce inequality of electrical energy, but it won't necessarily reduce inequality in food, clothing, and many other tangible products which are presently cheaply derived from hydrocarbons. Keith Hudson At 09:40 09/10/01 -0400, you wrote: > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "David Farber" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Sent: Tuesday, October 09, 2001 5:52 AM >Subject: IP: :The Day The World Came To Its Senses? >> >> >Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2001 22:24:51 -0700 >> >From: "Robert J. Berger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> > >> > >> >The Day The World Came To Its Senses? >> >By Bill Moore >> >http://evworld.com/databases/storybuilder.cfm?storyid=245 >> > >> >This week, Phil Watts, the chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, gave a >> >remarkable speech in New York, just three weeks after the tragedy of >> >September 11th. >> > >> >Accustomed to making and approving business decisions and technology >> >plans that extend decades into the future, Watts told an audience >> >assembled under the auspices of the United Nations Development >> >Program, that Shell, one of the largest oil companies in the world, >> >was preparing for the "End of the Hydrocarbon Age." >> > >> >He painted two possible scenarios he termed, "Dynamics as Usual" and >> >"The Spirit of the Coming Age." >> > >> >Under the first scenario, Shell envisions an "evolutionary" carbon >> >shift from coal to natural gas to renewables. Petroleum's current 40 >> >percent global energy share will drop to 25 percent by 2050. Natural >> >gas market share will climb to 20 percent while the remainder will >> >come from a combination of nuclear and various renewable sources. >> > >> >Under "The Spirit of the Coming Age" scenario, the world would >> >experience a far more dramatic shift from carbon-intensive fuels to >> >hydrogen. Watt's stated this second scenario, "explores something >> >rather more revolutionary, the potential for a truly hydrogen economy, >> >growing out of new and exciting developments in fuel cells, advanced >> >hydrocarbon technologies and carbon dioxide sequestration." >> > >> >Watts envisioned fuel cells beginning to reach serious market >> >penetration by 2025 and as a result dramatically altering the energy >> >landscape long before oil becomes scarce. >> > >> >Watts isn't just talking the talk. He has pledged to walk the walk by >> >committing between $500 million and $1 billion over the next five >> >years to develop new energy businesses, concentrating primarily on >> >solar and wind energy. >> > >> >Watts concluded his remarks by saying that oil companies can no longer >> >assume they will dominate the next 100 years as they have the previous >> >century. "That would be a very complacent view." >> > >> >Phil Watt's comments in New York this week are truly remarkable in the >> >light of the events on and after September 11, 2001. Here is a major >> >oil company executive publicly stating that the world is changing and >> >his company plans to lead in this transition. He pointed out that not >> >only does he intend to make Shell "a prime mover in this transitional >> >period" but he also noted that "one in five of the world's population >> >does not have access to commercial energy. It is our goal to >> >contribute to the development of an affordable, sustainable energy >> >system which will help reduce this sort of inequality." >> > >> ><snip> >> > >> >The challenge of using hydrogen, however, also creates new >> >opportunities because it is best made and used on site, as >> >needed. There are few places on earth that don't have sufficient >> >sunlight and wind to make feasible the electrolysis of water from >> >photovoltaics or wind power. Given the sharp drop in the cost of wind >> >generated electricity, now as low as 4-5 cents per kilowatt and the >> >equally sharp decline in the cost of photovoltaic energy technology -- >> >which is forecast to continue to drop even more -- it is entirely >> >possible that these technologies someday can be "married" to create a >> >practical, affordable, self-contained generation system that provides >> >a home, a business or a community with electricity, purified water and >> >sufficient heat to warm and cool buildings. >> > >> ><snip> >> > >> >Or instead of electrolyzing water, someday we could have waste water >> >treatment facilities that feed tanks of hydrogen-producing algae. This >> >approach promises to be even more cost-effective. Communities could >> >generate their own supply of hydrogen. The problem of transporting >> >hydrogen would be minimized if not eliminated. >> > >> > Imagine the community of the future where algae-produced hydrogen >> >powers fuel cells that produce electricity, clean water and district >> >or process heat. And because of advances in energy efficiency and >> >smart community planning, the homes and businesses in the community >> >will utilize far less than they do today. >> > >> > And in the spirit of Phil Watts' vision, this technology would be >> >available to all. Rural villages in Malawi and Uzbekistan and >> >Honduras could have the energy they need to improve their quality of >> >life. The standard of living would go up, there would be greater >> >literacy, less environmental degradation and a lower birth rate. >> > >> ><snip> >> > >> >Is such a scenario feasible? Is it technically, economically, and >> >politically possible? I believe it is. >> > >> >The bigger question is, "Can human nature adapt to this brave new >> >world?" That is the real unknown. We are resilient. We are >> >adaptive. And to be perfectly honest, do we have any other choice? The >> >wider the gulf grows between the have and have-nots of the world, the >> >more inequities we will see and the more terrorism we will experience. >> > >> >The hydrogen economy won't solve the problem of human nature, but it >> >might just put us back in touch with the rhythms of the planet on >> >which we all depend. Is this the impossible dream? Perhaps. I will be >> >the first to admit it is imperfect. But I also believe it is one >> >worth dreaming and more importantly, striving to achieve. September >> >11th marks a great turning point in the history of man. Which path we >> >take will determine whether it marks the beginning of the end or >> >just the end of the beginning. >> > >> >-- >> >Robert J. Berger >> >UltraDevices, Inc. >> >257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041 >> >Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.ultradevices.com >> >Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868 >> For archives see: http://www.interesting-people.org/ ___________________________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
