The reason why I think that the Euro will ultimately fail is that cultural differences within Europe will maintain the existing economic disparities between regions, and the continuation of a European-wide bank rate by the European Central Bank will only exacerbate tensions.
A year ago it was decided that existing currencies would be incinerated and melted down immediately after the institution of the Euro. Six months ago it was decided that this would happen after two months. Today, I understand that at least two countries to my knowledge, Germany and Spain (and probably others), will allow "indefinite" further use of national currencies in parallel with the Euro. For two months? Six months? Whether the Euro will become the de facto currency of Europe in the next few months is still uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the majority of intra-European (and external) trade will continue to be carried out in US$s as now, even if Euros are quoted on their invoices. What is also certain (though I cannot prove this) is that the Treasury Departments of all EC countries will not incinerate and melt down their national currencies for a very long time to come in case they are suddenly needed in the case of a collapse of the Euro. I think the matter of currencies might be very similar to languages. Most peoples of the world will maintain their own currencies but will increasingly use a world currency (the US$) both for trade and tourism. Whether the Euro will survive as a "national" currency is still unknown -- I doubt it. It won't be a happy Europe in 2002, but it will be a very interesting one. Keith Hudson __________________________________________________________ �Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow _________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________
