I just had the pleasure of spending ten days in France (Paris and the Loire)
and was surprised by the goodwill shown by the French toward conversion to
the Euro. Everyone I asked (maybe two dozen people) expected it to work and
expressed confidence that they personally wouldn't have any problems. Even
the few who were having problems (e.g. in taking credit cards and working
out the conversion equivalences) seemed to do so with good will. There were
maxims printed everywhere: "The Euro--it's like before, but better."  The
only people who seem to have been put out were the many currency exchange
kiosks and branch offices in Paris, most of which now seem to have closed
their currency operations.

Lawry

-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 12:44 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Happy New Europe?


The reason why I think that the Euro will ultimately fail is that cultural
differences within Europe will maintain the existing economic disparities
between regions, and the continuation of a European-wide bank rate by the
European Central Bank will only exacerbate tensions.

A year ago it was decided that existing currencies would be incinerated and
melted down immediately after the institution of the Euro. Six months ago
it was decided that this would happen after two months. Today, I understand
that at least two countries to my knowledge, Germany and Spain (and
probably others), will allow "indefinite" further use of national
currencies in parallel with the Euro. For two months?  Six months?

Whether the Euro will become the de facto currency of Europe in the next
few months is still uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the
majority of intra-European (and external) trade will continue to be carried
out in US$s as now, even if Euros are quoted on their invoices. What is
also certain (though I cannot prove this) is that the Treasury Departments
of all EC countries will not incinerate and melt down their national
currencies for a very long time to come in case they are suddenly needed in
the case of a collapse of the Euro.

I think the matter of currencies might be very similar to languages. Most
peoples of the world will maintain their own currencies but will
increasingly use a world currency (the US$) both for trade and tourism.
Whether the Euro will survive as a "national" currency is still unknown --
I doubt it.

It won't be a happy Europe in 2002, but it will be a very interesting one.

Keith Hudson




__________________________________________________________
�Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in
order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow
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Keith Hudson, Bath, England;  e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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