I don't have the stats, but I recall reading that due to low interest rates, refinancing of private homes has reached record levels, as has total mortgage amounts outstanding. ( & as has outstanding debt of all kinds) Mortgages interest is one of the few types of interest expense that can now be deducted from income for federal income tax purposes in the US. Some home equity loans are second mortgages on top of first ones.
It is likely that the equity value in homes now is not as great a % of GDP as it was 20 years ago. Thus the savings account it represents is not as significant as one might think. If the recession deepens and unemployment increases, housing prices which have held up well so far might decline. I can see banks forclosing and getting hit because the outstanding loan amounts aren't covered by the then current sales values. Re "productive investments", I'm for shrinkage, not growth. Ecological wealth, called "Natural Capital" by Herman Daly(former economist at the World Bank) is disappearing faster & faster. I'm working on a paper which will be called "Shrinking Our Way to Prosperity". Growth isn't sustainable on a finite planet. Rational shrinkage or natural cull, take you pick. Steve ====================== Brad McM: About 1980, I read in "Across the Board" an article that specifically said that a big problem in America was that tax policies (et.) encouraged people to "invest" in their homes instead of in productive assets. The article said that investing in homes was like investing in gold or keeping your money under the mattress -- unproductive. The article said thatAmerica should change its tax policies (etc.) to encourage investing in enterprise instead of in private homes. (snip) -- http://magma.ca/~gpco/ http://www.scientists4pr.org/ Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.--Kenneth Boulding
