The coming week promises to be a fascinating one in the world of economics, employment and politics. The following preview by Dan Bigman, Business Editor, NYTimes lays out the agenda.
As an Englishman, writing on a mainly Canadian discussion list, I find it significant that almost all our postings refer to what is going on in America. I think it would be fairly widely agreed that America is now so powerful that what goes on there is vital to the short and medium term future of the world. However, there are straws in the wind that America may now be at the height of its powers. Paul Kennedy's book, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" supplies much evidence for the inevitability of collapse of all great powers so far in history. In the last few days I've come across two straws in the wind which suggest that this might be so, and that China will be the next to take over the top spot in the coming decade or two. The first is that 60% of all papers in "Physics Review" (if I remember the name of the journal correctly -- the foremost physics journal in the world) were written by naturalised Americans who were actually born and educated in Asia. The second is that many high-tech firms in Taiwan are now moving to mainland China, not only for the reason that labour is cheaper and that there is a huge consumer market there, but also because of the superlative quality of Chinese technical education and universities (of which the private proportion is growing rapidly). Anyway, back to America for now for those who are interested. I have the feeling that the coming week's events will be more than normally significant: <<<< 1. What to Watch ======================================================= The coming week will be busy on all fronts, with the Federal Reserve Board's policy-making meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, growth figures for the United States economy in the fourth quarter due out Wednesday and employment figures for January due out on Friday. All of this economic news will unfold against the backdrop of continuing revelations about the Enron Corporation, as investigations and Congressional hearings look into the collapse of the company and the complex dealings that led to its downfall. On Tuesday, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will hold a hearing on how the Enron debacle is affecting the energy market. In addition, a number of major American companies will be reporting earnings. So far, earnings season has had a wide range of results. Companies worth watching include: Walt Disney, Xerox (Monday); USA Networks, (Tuesday); AOL Time Warner, AT&T, (Wednesday); Delta Air Lines, Procter & Gamble, Verizon Communications (Thursday). But amid all of this, Wednesday is the day to watch this week as the Fed issues its decision on interest rates. Another rate cut does not appear likely. Last Thursday, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve's chairman, said he saw a number of signs that the American economy may be emerging from recession. The Fed has cut interest rates 11 times in little more than a year. A broad look at how the economy did in the fourth quarter is also due out on Wednesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg News last week forecast that the numbers will show the nation was still mired in recession in the last three months of 2001, with the gross domestic product falling an anticipated 1.1 percent. In the third quarter, growth fell 1.3 percent, bringing the decade-long expansion to a close. On Friday, another key report is due out, as the government reports the employment figures for January. Forecasts are that companies shed an additional 50,000 jobs this month, far less than in December, when 124,000 jobs were cut outside the farming sector. The unemployment rate is expected to climb to 5.9 percent from 5.8 percent. Also of note: The World Economic Forum, which normally makes its home in scenic Davos, Switzerland, will be held in New York this year from Thursday to Monday. Protests of some type are expected in the city. But in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, most people are not expecting the kind of violence seen at similar global economic meetings in Seattle and Genoa, Italy. DAN BIGMAN, Business Editor, NYTimes.com >>>> __________________________________________________________ �Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow _________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________
