My thoughts this morning have been kicked off in a curious way by the 6th
chapter of Stiglitz's book ("Globalization and its Discontents") where he
is writing about cartels. In particular, he mentions the aluminium cartel
got together by Paul O'Neill in his previous role as a CEO before he became
the present (and gaffe-ridden) US Secretary of the Treasury.
The Industrial Revolution can be described in many different ways with many
antecedant causes -- intellectual, cultural, geographic and so on -- but it
can also be described strictly from the materials point of view. For those
FWers who are not scientifically trained, some of my stumblings this
morning may be boring and may seem irrelevant, but I'd like to explore this
briefly and would welcome feedback if forthcoming.
I'm sure that somewhere on the Net there are websites devoted to
afficionados of biotechnology but I don't want to explore those because I
don't want to get trapped in detail or carried away by spurious enthusiasm.
It's the wider ramifications that interest me and also -- very importantly
-- to consider whether the seeds of a new sort of biorevolution are already
beginning to germinate. With hindsight, we can see the causes of the
industrial revolution shaping up for centuries beforehand. Maybe the
beginnings of the biochemical revolution are already to hand.
The only reason why I am thinking about this is that the sort of
gross-but-cheap energy supplies of the past 200 years or so (coal, oil,
gas) are probably going to subside quite steeply (relative to growing
demand) in about 30 years leaving our present sort of economic system with
a void that will cause it to collapse. There are those (and I belong to
them) who propose that solar energy technology will make up the gap.
However, it will be relatively expensive energy, needing immensely large
investments for large electricity-generating power stations. If an
alternative solar technology comes along needing relatively small financial
investment -- though requiring greater intellectual investment -- then I
know which one I would plump for, because it means that prosperity could be
democratised that much more easily.
I need give only one example of a product of biochemistry and I hope it
will serve as a convincing argument for the inevitability of the ultimate
biochemical revolution -- whenever that may be. The silk that spider's spin
is very many times stronger than steel wire of the same gauge. The silk is
made from proteins, consisting of organic molecules made from relatively
abundant elements such as oxygen, nitrogen and above all, carbon. All
these, of course, are in the air around us -- and, in fact, there is
concern that we have too much carbon in the atmosphere in the form of
carbon dioxide, CO2.
A great deal of research is now being done in developing industrial methods
of making spider's silk, but also of a great number of other materials of
different properties made from widely available organic materials. At
present, the fundamentals of our economy is based on the transformation of
relatively rare resources, such as iron ore, which requires extremely large
inputs of energy. However, the production of spider's silk probably
requires thousands (and certainly hundreds) of times less energy per ton,
or mile, than steel. And the same can be said for any other important
material that we use today. Whether in wire, sheet or solid form, it is
absolutely certain that organic materials of equivalent strength and
properties will be able to be manufactured by biochemical methods. (Even
now, organic monitor screens for mobile phones and PCs are now being
developed.)
Two important ingredients are needed. One is biochemical know-how, and the
other is energy. As far as biochemical know-how is concerned, there is
little doubt now that the burgeoning discipline of biogenetics will, before
too long, be able to produce DNA that can produce the requisite materials.
(Sophisticated drugs, far too complex to be produced by industrial methods,
are already being produced via DNA methods.) All we need to say on this
point is that research into biogenetics is probably already proceeding at a
pace far swifter than that of any other scientific discipline in times past
(for the immediate purpose of life prolongation).
The other ingredient is energy. And this, of course, pours down on us every
day from the sun and at no cost. The amount of solar energy we receive
every day is hundreds of times greater than all our existing energy
technologies combined. The important point here is that, although the
density of solar energy is greater at the equator than in more northern
lattitudes, there is more than sufficient available everywhere in the world
where man cares to live. Even the north or south pole receives prodigious
amounts of energy during the light season.
Unlike now, biogenetic materials will only need trace elements of expensive
resources. Except for one -- water. Water for biogenetic mini-factories
will be as necessary as for organic life in our natural environment. And we
are already desperately short of potable water, of course. However, let's
bear in mind that although the world is heavily overpopulated, it is due to
start declining in 30 years or so and, if fertility rates of advanced
countries are any guide, world population could decline very steeply from
then onwards if there were sufficient guarantees that a high standard of
life could be achieved.
The biochemical revolution will throw everything into the air as regards
the location of industry, geographical access to relatively rare resources,
and the necessity of long-distance trade. Within reason, every population
in every country would be able to produce whatever they required at pretty
low cost, given reasonable access to water supplies.
Given that biogenetics is already proceeding at a fast pace, and if we
care for the future of mankind what is required now? It is that our
educational systems must be improved considerably and also shifted bodily
towards science. If we imagine village-type communities in the further
future (as I do) then a relatively small community must have at least
several supremely well-educated biochemists in their midst who can develop
biogenetic systems in situ. They don't need the information in situ -- that
will be avilable on the Net -- but they'll need the skills to translate it
for local production purposes.
To summarise, I think that the Biochemical Revolution is inevitable. It is
only a matter of when. I am also beginning to think that, given our present
industrial production methods, there is no possibility of the bulk of the
world's population ever being able to remotely approximate the standard of
living that those of us in the west already enjoy. If we want to think of
the world as a whole, the best we can hope for the population hump to
decline as quickly as possible, for the decline of cheap fossil fuels to be
as gentle as possible and, in the meantime, to develop biochemical
industrial methods as quickly as possible.
Keith Hudson
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Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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