Keith, While the scenarios you mention may all occur, I feel that you are imputing too much logic to the Bush contingent. My guess is that they are simply trying to put the squeeze on Sa'ud and trying to help out a few Congress people for the November elections. I bet you will see a change in the polemics once the elections are over.
Bill Ward On Mon, 12 Aug 2002 08:18:19 +0100 Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: > Karen asked: > > <<<< > What does it mean to you that articles like this are appearing in > the > mainstrteam press? > >>>> > > Jan, Bill, Lawry and Brad have all replied with perceptive comments > from > different angles. Simmering all these down, and bearing in mind that > the > Rand Report was allowed to leak (this was very significant, I > think), my > view is that Bush is now allowing an anti-Saudi Arabian strategy to > become > talked about even while he himself concentrates on making the case > publicly > against Saddam Hussein. > > I think the tight circle behind Bush decided some months ago (and > perhaps a > long time before then) that there's no way that a fundamentalist > insurrection can be avoided in Saudi Arabia and that this would > have > disastrous effects on oil exports to America and on its > already-shaky > economy. (America would be significantly affected for at least a > year until > oil supplies from Mexico, Nicaragua, Russia, etc, could be ramped > up.) > Also, as a corollary, this group decided that there's no way that > the > Islamic mullahs and associated terrorist groups can be turned around > in > Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan, etc. > (And > there's also the possibility that Islamic fundamentalism could erupt > and > overthrow governments in several other countries such as Turkey, > Egypt, > Algeria, Indonesia, etc, unless some dramatic intervention occurs. ) > > > So, if continuing catastrophes are inevitable, then it might as well > be > American-led so that, at least (if successful), oil supplies can be > maintained. > > My bet is this: if Saudi Arabia doesn't collapse in the next few > weeks > (perhaps prompted by King Fahd's death), then Bush will announce > landings > of troops in Kuwait. > > When? September 11 2002. > > On this tragic anniversary, no leader can ever have had a better > ortunity to gather the vast majority of his country's population > behind > him -- despite the growing opposition within the country (even from > leading > Republicans, as I heard this morning on the radio) and without. > > (I don't think that the American troops will necessarily do > anything > immediately in Kuwait. They won't need to. They'll just build up > steadily. > Sooner or later, this will provoke an uprising in Saudi Arabia, and > the > troops will then move south to protect the oil wells [or bring them > back > into production if sabotaged]*. Maybe, as a bonus, there'll be a > coup > d'etat in Iraq but, really, America can afford to wait upon events > there -- > there is no evidence that Saddam Hussein is of any danger in the > meantime > despite American propaganda.) > > Keith Hudson > > *I've little doubt that the mysterious Carlyle group will be > importantly > involved here (and would have included Enron, were it not for its > collapse!). Members include some of the more responsible members of > the > immensely rich bin Laden family (good friends with Prince Charles, > incidentally) and, together, with other pro-Western rich Saudi > Arabians, > will take over formal ownership of the SA oil industry (as well as > the > assets of those SA businessmen who have been supporting Al Qaeda). > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- --- > -------------- > > Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England > Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > ________________________________________________________________________ > ________________________________________________________________ GET INTERNET ACCESS FROM JUNO! Juno offers FREE or PREMIUM Internet access for less! Join Juno today! For your FREE software, visit: http://dl.www.juno.com/get/web/.
